The preseason AP Top 25 always looks sturdy in August. By the time September starts stacking up, it usually feels a lot less permanent.
This year’s poll has a handful of teams living dangerously from the jump, and the schedules tell you why. A bad Saturday can send some of them tumbling out right away. For others, even a win that looks flat can start the slide toward “others receiving votes.”
Missouri is the first team on the edge. The Tigers are parked at No. 25, which means there’s no breathing room at all.
They go to Kansas on Friday, Sept. 11, in the Border Showdown, and that standalone setup guarantees every voter is watching. Two weeks later, Missouri heads to Mississippi State for another road test where there’s no built-in benefit of the doubt.
One loss gets a No. 25 team out immediately, and even an ugly win against an underdog could be enough to cost the Tigers their place. Missouri needs to leave Lawrence unbeaten if it wants to still be ranked on Oct.
Louisville is in a similarly rough spot, only the Cardinals’ opening month is even more demanding. At No. 24, they draw Ole Miss in Nashville on Sept. 6 in the Music City Kickoff, then host SMU on Sept.
- That’s two ranked opponents in the first three games, and the neutral-site opener makes life harder for Jeff Brohm’s group.
There’s no home crowd, no easing into the season, and Ole Miss brings back quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. Then SMU comes into L&N Stadium with a ranking of its own to protect.
Louisville could still be a solid team at 1-2, but it would not still be ranked.
Houston is the least tested team in this cluster, but also the one facing the sharpest jump in competition. The Cougars go to Texas Tech on Friday, Sept. 18, and Texas Tech is No. 12 after winning the Big 12 last season.
That trip to Lubbock is the whole story for Willie Fritz’s team in the poll race. It’s a Friday night game, so there’s nowhere for the result to hide and no other matchup to soften the blow.
A loss there, and a No. 23 Houston is out.
Iowa’s ranking lives or dies in a two-game stretch. The Hawkeyes host Iowa State on Sept. 12 in the Cy-Hawk game, then head to Michigan on Sept.
- One rivalry game against a Big 12 opponent that has beaten Iowa recently, then a trip to Ann Arbor.
Kirk Ferentz’s team also doesn’t have style points working in its favor. Iowa wins with defense and low scores, and voters aren’t likely to be impressed by a 17-13 win over Northern Iowa if the Hawkeyes are sitting at No.
- A 10-point loss to Iowa State could hit even harder.
Iowa went 9-4 last season with four losses by a combined 15 points, so close games have a way of cutting both ways here.
Tennessee has an equally unforgiving path. The Volunteers visit Georgia Tech on Sept. 12 in prime time on ESPN, then host Texas on Sept.
- At No. 20, there isn’t much room to absorb either one.
The Atlanta trip is tricky because Georgia Tech is at home, has recruited well, and gets Tennessee before the Vols have figured out their offense. Tennessee will be breaking in a new starting quarterback, whether that’s Faizon Brandon or George McIntyre.
A loss there would be read as a bad one. Then Texas comes to Knoxville two weeks later, and the Longhorns have already shown they can turn an early stumble into a strong season.
Tennessee needs to win in Atlanta and look good doing it if it wants any chance of hanging around.
LSU might have the harshest September of all. That’s a brutal assignment for any team, and even more so for a coach in his first season in Baton Rouge.
Clemson comes to town on Sept. 5.
Then LSU goes to Ole Miss on Sept. 19, where Lane Kiffin returns to the program he left. Texas A&M follows in Tiger Stadium a week later.
Three games against likely ranked opponents in less than a month is a heavy lift. The Ole Miss trip feels like the one that can crack things open, especially with Kiffin walking into a hostile stadium against the team he abandoned.
LSU is No. 11, so one loss keeps it in the poll, but two by October almost certainly do not. There’s also the chance the Tigers are still trying to learn a new offensive system while the losses pile up.
Oklahoma is the only top-10 team in this group that can afford to lose twice before October and still have a shot to remain ranked. The Sooners go to Michigan on Sept. 12, then to Georgia on Sept.
- Both are road games against ranked opponents, and neither looks like a toss-up in Oklahoma’s favor.
Michigan wants payback after last year’s loss in Norman, and it gets this one at home under Kyle Whittingham. Bryce Underwood faces John Mateer again, this time with a better roster around him.
Two weeks later, Oklahoma goes to Athens, where Georgia does not lose home games in September. Brent Venables could also find himself under heat if the Sooners start 0-2 in those games.
At No. 10, Oklahoma is positioned exactly where two September losses could knock a team all the way out of the poll.
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