Iowa’s latest ESPN FPI numbers came with a jolt.
After taking a hit in last week’s update, the Hawkeyes surged 14 spots to No. 21 in the new rankings, the biggest leap of any team in the country. That kind of move puts Iowa firmly back inside the top 25 after spending much of the season bouncing in and out of that range.
The boost followed Iowa’s strong showing against Wisconsin, and it came with a noticeable shift in the projections. ESPN now has Iowa at 8.5 projected wins, up from 7.7, and the Hawkeyes are locked into bowl eligibility at 100.0%.
The bigger numbers are the ones tied to the ceiling. Iowa’s chance to finish 10-2 and run the table jumped from 4.1% to 13.1%. Its College Football Playoff odds also climbed, rising from 4.0% to 11.0%.
Here’s where Iowa stands in the latest FPI outlook:
Projected Record: 8.5-3.5
Chance to Win Out: 13.1%
Chance to Make a Bowl Game: 100.0%
Chance to Win the Big Ten: 0.8%
Chance to Make the College Football Playoff: 11.0%
Chance to Make the National Championship: 0.5%
Chance to Win the National Championship: 0.1%
The numbers suggest Iowa is getting closer to where the College Football Playoff committee could place it when rankings are released Tuesday night. With the sport’s week-to-week chaos creating more uncertainty than usual, the Hawkeyes may be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
The margin for error is gone, but the path is still there. A 10-2 Iowa team is difficult to dismiss, and even tougher to leave out.
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Those changes matter because Iowa enters the weekend ranked No. 21 in the AP Top 25 Poll at 6-2 and tied with Northwestern for fifth place in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes have been steady enough to stay in the conference race, but the latest alignment up front suggests the staff is still sorting through some important answers before the schedule tightens further. [Read more 🡒]
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