At some point, the numbers have to start catching up to what Iowa has already done on the field.
The Hawkeyes are 4-0, they’ve got a road win over Michigan in the bank, and yet ESPN’s latest FPI still has them sitting at No. 25 - just two spots behind the Wolverines they beat. That’s the kind of ranking that makes you stop and blink. Iowa moved up this week, sure, but only by a sliver, and it still feels like the model is dragging its feet.
What did change in a big way was Iowa’s outlook for the rest of the season. ESPN’s projection bumped the Hawkeyes from 8.1 wins to 8.7, and their bowl chances are now about as close to a sure thing as you can get this early, at 98.4%.
The playoff conversation, too, has gone from far-fetched to legitimate. After the Michigan win, Iowa’s chance to make the College Football Playoff nearly doubled and now sits at 22.9%.
Here’s how the rest of the forecast looks:
Projected Record: 8.7 - 3.4
Chance to Win Out: 0.8%
Chance to Make a Bowl Game: 98.4%
Chance to Win the Big Ten: 3.1%
Chance to Make the College Football Playoff: 22.9%
Chance to Make the National Championship: 1.1%
Chance to Win the National Championship: 0.4%
That kind of jump says plenty about how the season is starting to look for Iowa. Last year, the Hawkeyes kept running into good teams and coming up short.
This year, they’ve already banked two Power Four wins that came down to late-game winners. Maybe that’s the program taking a step forward.
Maybe that’s some good fortune finally breaking its way. Most likely, it’s a little of both.
Either way, the path in front of Iowa is starting to look real. The schedule is there, the results are there, and the playoff odds are no longer just a fantasy.
Ohio State is next. If Iowa can handle that one, the conversation gets a lot louder.
In Other News...
Iowa Has A Real Shot To Shake Up The Big Ten Again
Iowas trip to face No. 5 Ohio State carries the kind of buzz that tends to follow a team after it has already shown it can wreck a contenders plans. The Hawkeyes are ranked No. 14 and coming off an upset of Michigan, a win fueled by quarterback Hank Browns late drive that gave Iowa a fresh sense of belief heading into another heavyweight matchup.
Now comes a different kind of test, with Ohio States offense leaning on its running backs and quarterback Julian Sayin against Iowas top-ranked scoring defense. The Buckeyes have had some recent issues on that side of the ball, which only adds to the intrigue for a Hawkeyes team that has already shown it can make the Big Tens title picture a little messier. [Read more 🡒]
Caitlin Clark Got Dragged Into A Viral Hawkeyes Hearing Mix-Up
A strange little Iowa footnote popped up in a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing when U.S. senator Eric Schmitt pressed U.S. attorney Jack Smith over texts that referenced a Hawks game. Schmitt took that to mean the Atlanta Hawks, but Smith said he was actually at a womens college basketball game on Feb. 3, 2024, watching the Iowa Hawkeyes face Maryland.
The mix-up was easy enough to see once the shorthand got sorted out, but it still sent Caitlin Clark and Iowa into an unlikely political crosscurrent. For Hawkeyes fans, it was just another reminder of how often the program and its biggest star have become part of a much larger conversation, even when the subject at hand has nothing to do with basketball. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa Faces One Kinnick Test That Could Change Everything
ESPN analyst Greg McElroy is already circling Iowas Week 5 trip to Ohio State as one of the Big Tens first real measuring sticks, and his breakdown showed why. He pointed to the Buckeyes passing game, led by receiver Jeremiah Smith, while also giving Iowa credit for the kind of defensive structure that usually keeps the Hawkeyes in games well into the fourth quarter. In a matchup like this, the margins tend to be thin, and McElroy made clear that both sides have areas that could swing the night.
For Iowa, the conversation naturally starts with the run game and the red zone defense, two areas that often decide whether the Hawkeyes can turn a close road test into something more. McElroys prediction leans Ohio State, but the bigger question for Iowa is whether those strengths can travel well enough to make the Buckeyes uncomfortable. If they do, this game could look very different from the one many are expecting, and that is exactly what makes it such an intriguing early-season test. [Read more 🡒]