The latest Big Ten projections have Iowa sitting right where the Hawkeyes have lived for a while now: good enough to matter, not quite good enough to crash the top tier.
Kirk Ferentz’s team is projected to finish 9-3 overall and 6-3 in conference play, which would put Iowa seventh in the Big Ten standings. That slot comes in the middle of a crowded group that also includes USC, Washington and Penn State at 9-3. Above them, the projections have Oregon at 11-1, Ohio State and Indiana at 10-2, and then the Hawkeyes packed into the next tier with the rest of the league’s contenders.
It’s a familiar Iowa script. The model has the Hawkeyes handling the games they’re expected to win, but still coming up short when the schedule turns toward the league’s elite.
Iowa is projected to win all three of its non-conference games - Northern Illinois, Iowa State and Northern Iowa - and then stack up Big Ten victories against Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue and Nebraska. On the road, the projections give Iowa wins at Michigan and Washington, two results that would stand out in any season.
The losses are where the story tightens up. Iowa is picked to fall at home to Ohio State and then lose at Minnesota and Illinois. That leaves the Hawkeyes with a 9-3 finish and another trip to a solid bowl, but not the breakthrough leap the program has been chasing.
The most eye-catching part of the projection is the way Iowa gets there. The Hawkeyes are forecast to start 5-1, and that opening stretch includes those road wins at Michigan and Washington. If that happened, Iowa would be in control of its College Football Playoff fate before the season even reaches its midpoint.
That kind of start would be a jolt for a program that has spent years hovering around eight and nine wins. It would also give Iowa its best shot at the CFP under Kirk Ferentz since 2015. And with the clock ticking on Ferentz’s career, a run like that could put Iowa in position to do something that has felt just out of reach.
In Other News...
Iowas 2026 Defense Has 3 Players Who Could Define It
Iowas defense is heading into 2026 with the familiar expectation that Phil Parker will find answers, even as the personnel around him shifts. The Hawkeyes are staring at a group that will need to hold up on the back end and in the trenches, and a few names already stand out as the ones most likely to shape how sturdy this unit looks once the season gets going.
Zach Lutmer is expected to remain the top defensive back, while Iose Epenesa could be in line for a bigger role up front as his snaps grow on the line. Tyler Brown, the James Madison transfer at safety, also brings starting potential, giving Iowa another piece to sort into a defense that is still taking shape and still waiting to show exactly how far its rebuilt core can carry it. [Read more 🡒]
Tradon Bessinger Is Making Iowa's Quarterback Decision Much Harder
Iowas quarterback competition has stayed unsettled through fall camp, with Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski still battling for the opening assignment. But the conversation around the position has widened, because Tradon Bessinger has started to turn heads in a way few expected this early. The highly rated recruit has drawn attention from coaches and media alike, and his talent has become one of the more notable developments in camp.
Kirk Ferentz has long been cautious about putting true freshmen in that kind of spot, which is part of what makes Bessinger such an intriguing piece of the discussion. Even with limited playing time, he has done enough to get fans and analysts wondering how long Iowa can keep him on the sideline if he keeps flashing this kind of promise. For a program still searching for clarity under center, Bessinger has made the decision a lot more complicated. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa Fall Camp Just Changed Two Jobs Fans Are Watching
Iowas August camp always has a way of sorting out the depth chart before anyone gets to the real games, and Kirk Ferentz offered a few early clues about where things are headed for 2026. Cael Winter appears lined up to take over at center, giving the Hawkeyes a clearer answer on the offensive line as camp continues to tighten the competition elsewhere.
The special teams jobs are still up for grabs, though, with both the kicker and punter spots unresolved as fall approaches. On the other side of the ball, defensive back Tyler Brown looks unlikely to be ready for the opener because of injury, while defensive lineman Kenneth Merrieweather is back on the practice field, a welcome sign for a defense that wants as much stability as possible before the season starts. [Read more 🡒]