ESPN’s FPI may be blinking a little too hard on Iowa after Week 1.
The Hawkeyes rolled past Northern Illinois 40-0, a result that should have looked clean in any model. Instead, Iowa slipped from No. 25 to No. 26 in the updated ESPN FPI, even after a game in which the margin was never in doubt and the scoreboard could have gotten uglier if the Hawkeyes had kept pushing.
Iowa checked a lot of boxes in the opener. The run game wore down Northern Illinois.
The passing attack showed bursts of big-play ability. The defense didn’t give up a single foot per carry.
And, because this is Iowa, the special teams found the end zone too.
That’s why the ranking drop stands out. A 40-0 win usually moves the needle the right way, not the wrong one. In this case, though, the model appears to be punishing Iowa for not turning a blowout into something even larger, even though the Hawkeyes backed off and protected themselves from the heat and from unnecessary injuries.
For now, the broader outlook in the computer world hasn’t shifted much. The victory was the kind that was expected, so most of Iowa’s forecast remains pretty much where it was before kickoff.
Projected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
Chance to Win Out: 0.2%
Chance to Make a Bowl Game: 88.8%
Chance to Win the Big Ten: 1.5%
Chance to Make the College Football Playoff: 10.4%
Chance to Make the National Championship: 0.6%
Chance to Win the National Championship: 0.2%
There is a reason to be patient, though. The sample size is tiny right now, with most teams working off just one game. That makes early-model noise inevitable, and it should settle down as the season gets more data.
If Iowa handles Iowa State in the Cy-Hawk game, that could be the kind of result that forces a sharper correction in the other direction. A Power Four win would give the Hawkeyes a much stronger case for the computers to treat them differently.
In Other News...
Iowa Just Landed An Early Recruiting Chance Fans Should Notice
A notable early recruiting opportunity is coming Iowas way, as Naperville Neuqua Valley four-star hybrid Cole Kelly is set to visit Iowa City for an unofficial look. The 2028 prospect already carries a national profile, checking in at No. 34 overall and No. 10 among small forwards in his class, and he has the kind of skill blend that tends to draw attention quickly in the Midwest and beyond.
Kellys appeal is easy to see from an Iowa perspective. He brings shooting, playmaking, size and rebounding to the table, which makes him a fit for a modern frontcourt wing spot, even if evaluators still have questions about his quickness. With multiple Big Ten and Big East programs in the mix, this visit gives Iowa a chance to make an impression early and start shaping what could become a meaningful recruitment down the line. [Read more 🡒]
Jaylen Raynor Faces A Bigger Iowa Test Than Fans Wanted
Jaylen Raynors first start for Iowa State gave the Cyclones enough to build on, but it also showed why the next step feels so important. Against Southeast Missouri State, the quarterback accounted for four touchdowns and flashed more comfort on play-action and downfield throws, even as he finished just 8 of 16 through the air. For Iowa, that kind of mixed debut is worth watching closely, because the Hawkeyes are the kind of defense that can force a young passer to earn everything.
What may matter most in the rivalry matchup is how much help Raynor gets around him. The article points to Iowa States running game as a key piece in making his passing life easier, especially if the Cyclones want to stay on schedule and keep the Hawkeyes from putting him in obvious passing situations. Raynor showed he can make plays with his legs and hit some bigger throws, but Iowa is a different test, and it may require a much more complete offensive day than fans were hoping to see this early. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa Just Unveiled A Defensive Tweak That Could Matter Later
Against Northern Illinois, Iowa rolled out a third-down look that quietly stood out: three linebackers, five defensive backs and just three defensive linemen. The package showed up only in those obvious passing situations, and it paid off quickly with two sacks in four plays, a reminder that the Hawkeyes are still willing to tinker when the matchup calls for it.
Kirk Ferentz described it as a tactical adjustment tied to the personnel on hand, a way to add versatility while getting more linebackers on the field and easing some of the burden on a less experienced defensive line. It was just one wrinkle in an early-season game, but for a defense that has built its identity on being difficult to solve, it could become a useful option as the schedule gets tougher. [Read more 🡒]