Iowa’s offense and defense are headed into the fall with two very different kinds of questions, and the over/under lines tell the story pretty cleanly.
On one side, there’s Tim Lester’s attack, which has already climbed out of the basement after those brutal 2022 and 2023 numbers of 17.7 and 15.4 points per game. Iowa jumped to 27.7 points per game in 2024 and then 29.3 in 2025, its best full, non-COVID season since 2018, when the Hawkeyes averaged 31.2. With Lester entering year three, a returning group that includes a lot of familiar pieces, and a new quarterback battle between Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski, the offense has real momentum behind it.
The line sits at 29.5 points scored, and there’s plenty feeding the optimism. The offensive line brings back two starters, with Leighton Jones and Jack Dotzler effectively functioning like returning pieces too because of how much they’ve already played.
The backfield looks deep enough to matter, with four backs described as playable and/or startable. Reece Vander Zee and DJ Vonnahme are back, Tony Diaz has been added, and a lot of the important players have already logged plenty of snaps in Lester’s Shanahan offense.
Still, the whole thing hinges on the quarterback and the passing game. If that part takes another step, the rest of the offense can follow.
If it doesn’t, the ceiling gets harder to reach. There’s also the kicking piece: Drew Stevens had his misses, and Eli Ozick doesn’t seem to have the same leg, which could leave points out there.
Even so, the late-season finish matters. Iowa put up 40 against Nebraska and 34 against Vanderbilt, and the passing game hit a higher gear. With that in mind, the call here is the over on points scored.
The defensive number is a different beast entirely. The over/under is 17.5 points allowed, and Phil Parker’s track record is almost absurd.
Since he took over in 2012, Iowa has allowed 17.5 points per game. Over the last 10 seasons, Parker’s defenses have never finished above 20 points per game, sitting at 16.7 points allowed per contest in that span.
The low was 13.3 in 2022, and the high was 19.9 in 2017.
But this group is losing a lot. All four starting defensive linemen are gone, including the three sack leaders.
Two Third-Team All-Conference defensive backs are out, along with the team leader in tackles and tackles for loss. The good news for Iowa is that Zach Lutmer, Deshaun Lee and Jayden Montgomery are back, but the defense is still going to look a lot different.
That makes the schedule especially important. Northern Illinois, Iowa State and Northern Iowa should help the numbers early, but then comes a brutal stretch with Michigan, Ohio State and Washington in consecutive weeks.
Michigan has the No. 1 recruit in the country’s class of 2025 at quarterback, Ohio State brings Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith, and Washington has preseason Heisman candidate Demond Williams. Those three games could get loud on the scoreboard.
Even with all that, the expectation around Parker hasn’t changed much. Iowa has spent the last decade answering these kinds of questions with another top-15 defense. If the Hawkeyes can get through that three-game run without giving up 40 or more in any of them, they should be in decent shape heading into the back half of the schedule.
In Other News...
Ben McCollum Just Made An Early Move Hawkeyes Fans Will Notice
Ben McCollum is already making an early splash on the recruiting trail at Iowa, and his latest move points toward the kind of long-view talent evaluation Hawkeyes fans should get used to watching. The offer went to Noah Woods, a 6-foot-8 forward from Sioux Falls, South Dakota, who plays at Washington High School and on the Adidas 3SSB circuit, putting him on the radar as one of the more intriguing young prospects in the 2029 class.
Woods is still early in his recruitment, but the attention is starting to build, with South Dakota State and Nebraska also in the mix. For Iowa, the timing matters as much as the name itself, since getting involved this early with a player viewed as one of the top prospects in his state gives McCollum a chance to establish a relationship before the race really takes shape. [Read more 🡒]
Trevin Jirak Is Suddenly Back In Iowas Frontcourt Conversation
Trevin Jirak spent much of his freshman year on the edge of Iowas rotation, but his place in the frontcourt conversation looks a lot different heading into this season. Under the new five-for-five eligibility rule, he now has four years left, and the Hawkeyes have spent the offseason watching a bigger, more confident version of the 6-foot-10 forward emerge in practice. The staff has noticed the way his game has started to fit together, and theyve been quick to point out that his style gives Iowa something a little different in the post.
What makes Jirak especially interesting is how many ways the Hawkeyes can imagine using him. Iowa has been working him at the four, even in lineups with 7-foot-3 Andrew McKeever, and Jirak believes he can help stretch the floor while holding his own defensively on the perimeter. He was one of the most eye-catching players in the open practice last week, and the next step is whether that offseason progress shows up consistently once the games start to count. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa Names Are Starting To Stand Out In NBA Summer League
Julys NBA Summer League slate offered a familiar kind of scoreboard watching for Iowa fans, with a loose collection of former Hawkeyes and Iowa natives popping up across rosters and box scores. Hason Ward, Josh Dix, Keshon Gilbert, Brendan Hausen, Payton Sandfort and Bennett Stirtz were among the names to log minutes for teams such as the Warriors, Thunder and Hawks, giving the program a broader footprint than usual in the summer showcase.
The most encouraging part for Iowa followers is not just that these players were present, but that several of them found ways to contribute in different roles, from scoring and rebounding to playmaking. Gilberts work stood out in particular across multiple stops, while the mix also included Joshua Jefferson, Curtis Jones, Tamin Lipsey, Mitch Mascari and Trey Campbell, a reminder that Iowas pipeline is showing up in more places than one summer roster at a time. [Read more 🡒]