College football’s best rivalry games always have a little extra static in the air, and Iowa-Iowa State has that kind of edge again tonight. The Cy-Hawk series reaches its 73rd meeting, with roots stretching all the way back to 1894, and while Iowa still holds the all-time lead at 46-25, the recent runs have been much tighter than the history books suggest.
That’s why the 2016 comparison keeps popping up. The last time either side won this series by more than 10 points was that season, when Iowa rolled to a 42-3 victory.
It also marked year one of the Matt Campbell era for Iowa State. Now, 2026 brings year one of the Jimmy Rogers era after Campbell left for Penn State.
The betting market has leaned hard toward Iowa, too. The Hawkeyes were favored by 14.5 earlier in the week, and 81% of the community backed them to cover.
The number has since moved to 13.5, with the over/under sitting at 40.5. Our staff projections landed at an average score of 30-13, which would be comfortably enough to cash with room to spare.
That kind of spread is unusual for Iowa in this rivalry, but not unheard of. The Hawkeyes have been favored by more than two touchdowns only a dozen times in the series, with reliable gambling data going back to 1978.
They’re 10-2 straight up in those games and 7-5 against the spread. Over the full stretch since 1983, Iowa has won by at least two touchdowns 16 times, while Iowa State has done it just twice.
Kirk Ferentz has accounted for five of those Iowa blowouts.
The matchup itself also points back to 2016 in a few obvious ways. Iowa’s defense opened this season by allowing just 120 yards of total offense and no points, which echoes the kind of suffocating start that can set the tone in a rivalry game. Iowa State, meanwhile, is still sorting itself out in the first season under a new head coach.
The Cyclones did score 38 points last week against Southeast Missouri State, but the box score tells a more complicated story. They managed only 303 yards of offense, finished with just one more first down than the Redhawks and lost the time of possession battle by nearly 14 minutes. Their ground game produced just 3.5 yards per carry, and QB Jaylen Raynor completed 50% of his passes against a very subpar opponent.
Turnovers were the difference there. Iowa State forced three of them, while Raynor avoided an interception even while attempting five passes of 20-plus yards.
That’s where the 2016 game offers the clearest template. In the last Cy-Hawk played under the Kinnick lights, Iowa State’s only turnover was an interception thrown by Joel Lanning and picked off by Ben Niemann.
Allen Lazard was productive with seven catches for 111 yards, including a long of 36, and Trever Ryen added 19 yards on a deep completion. But the Cyclones’ offense was otherwise contained, and the turnover proved costly.
Iowa’s offense that night had enough balance to keep Iowa State from settling in. The Hawkeyes ran for 198 yards on 36 carries, with LeShun Daniels Jr. leading the way on 15 rushes for 112 yards and a touchdown. George Kittle chipped in three catches, including a score, and Matt VandeBerg did the heavy lifting in the passing game with seven receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown.
The 2026 version has some similar ingredients. Kamari Moulton exploded for 183 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries in week one.
DJ Vonnahme caught four passes for 42 yards. And Iowa also has a receiver Tim Lester used both vertically and horizontally in the opener, finishing with 84 yards and a touchdown on seven catches.
If Iowa State settles into man coverage outside and commits to stopping the run, the Hawkeyes’ path is pretty clear. Get Tony Diaz going early, work DJ Vonnahme when the Cyclones match him with a linebacker, and force the defense to loosen up enough for Moulton to take over on the ground.
The resemblance to 2016 is there. If Iowa makes those pieces fit tonight, the final score could look a lot like that one, too.
In Other News...
Iowa Is Using Cy-Hawk Weekend To Win Over Priority Targets
The Cy-Hawk game has long been one of the biggest dates on Iowas calendar, and this weekend it is doubling as a recruiting showcase. More than 20 football prospects are expected to be on hand, giving the Hawkeyes a chance to put their atmosphere, tradition and game-day routine in front of a group that includes both committed and uncommitted targets.
It is not just football being spotlighted, either. Iowa is bringing in recruits across womens basketball and mens basketball as part of the weekend push, turning one of the states signature sporting events into a broader pitch for the program. Former Hawkeyes quarterback CJ Beathard is also set to serve as honorary captain, adding another familiar face to a weekend designed to connect current targets with Iowas past and present. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa Turns To A Familiar Tone Setter For Huge Cy-Hawk Night
The Cy-Hawk rivalry is set for a familiar kind of spotlight Saturday night at a sold-out Kinnick Stadium, with Iowa leaning into the kind of setting that has long defined these games. The Hawkeyes will be in all-black uniforms for the annual showdown with Iowa State, and the occasion will carry extra weight with the quarterback competition still unfolding as Iowa looks for a clear answer behind center.
C.J. Beathard, who quarterbacked Iowa from 2013 to 2016, is part of the nights build-up and gives the program a direct link to one of its steadier recent eras. For a team trying to find its next leader under center, having a former quarterback from a successful stretch back around the program is the sort of familiar tone setter that can matter on a stage like this, even before the first snap is taken. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa Has To Set The Tone Early In This Cy-Hawk Test
A rare late kickoff gives Iowas Cy-Hawk meeting a different feel, and the Hawkeyes will be asked to handle it from the start. With the game set under the lights, the challenge is less about learning what this rivalry means and more about channeling it the right way, especially after a week in which roster changes and individual performances have already shaped the conversation around both teams.
For Iowa, the opening phase matters most. The Hawkeyes need to keep their emotions in check, establish control early and avoid letting Iowa State settle in, particularly with a quarterback who can hurt defenses when plays break down. If Iowa can force the game to be played on its terms, it will go a long way toward deciding whether the night belongs to the home side. [Read more 🡒]