The Big Ten women’s basketball season is about to shift into high gear, and for the Iowa Hawkeyes, the table is set for a strong start. Sitting at 10-2 overall and ranked No. 14 in the country, Iowa already has a conference win in its back pocket-a dominant road performance over Rutgers back on Dec.
- Now, with nothing but Big Ten games between now and March 1, the Hawkeyes are staring down a stretch that could help define their season.
It begins Sunday at home against Penn State (7-5, 0-1), with tipoff at 3 p.m. at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. From there, it’s a New Year’s Day matchup against Nebraska, also at home, followed by a Jan. 5 road trip to Northwestern. That’s three games against teams projected to finish in the bottom tier of the conference, plus a Nebraska team that, while undefeated so far, still has something to prove in Big Ten play.
If Iowa handles business, a 3-1 start should be the floor. A 4-0 run is very much in play, which would give the Hawkeyes momentum heading into their first major road test-Jan. 11 at Indiana.
Now, zooming out to the Big Ten landscape, it’s shaping up to be one of the most competitive seasons in recent memory. ESPN’s latest bracketology has 13 Big Ten teams in the NCAA Tournament picture.
That’s a crowded field, and with 11 weeks to go before Selection Sunday, the race is just getting started. Let’s break it down by tiers:
Tier 1: The Favorite
UCLA
The Bruins are the clear frontrunner. Led by preseason Big Ten Player of the Year Lauren Betts, UCLA is loaded with talent.
Betts is just one of seven players averaging at least nine points per game-a testament to their depth and balance. They’ve got a major test this Sunday at Ohio State, and the road doesn’t get easier with Maryland at home on Jan. 18, followed by a brutal early-February road swing through Michigan and Michigan State.
If UCLA can navigate that stretch unscathed, they could be looking at a perfect Big Ten record. It’s a tall order, but they’ve got the roster to pull it off.
Tier 2: The Challengers
Michigan, Maryland
Both of these squads are sitting comfortably in the national top 10, both in the AP poll and NET rankings. Michigan made an early-season statement with a 39-point neutral-site dismantling of Notre Dame, then followed it up with a narrow three-point loss to No.
1 UConn. The Wolverines are legit contenders.
Maryland, meanwhile, pulled off one of the wildest comebacks of the season-erasing a nine-point deficit in the final minute to beat Minnesota 100-99 in double overtime. That kind of resilience is hard to teach and even harder to beat.
Tier 3A: NCAA Locks
Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan State, USC
This is where things start to get tight. The separation between fourth and twelfth place could end up being razor-thin. A projected seven-way tie for sixth at 10-8 tells you everything you need to know about how deep-and unpredictable-this conference is.
Nebraska is off to a perfect 12-0 start, and their two matchups with Iowa could be pivotal. If either team can pull off a sweep, it could be the difference between a top-four finish and a mid-pack scramble. Both teams are hovering just outside the top 10 in NET rankings, sitting at 11th and 12th.
Ohio State’s only blemish in non-conference play came against UConn, and while it was a lopsided loss, the Buckeyes have the tools to compete with anyone in the Big Ten. USC, playing without star guard JuJu Watkins for the season, faces a tough road with two games against UCLA still to come.
Michigan State remains in this group despite a head-scratching loss at Wisconsin. That result raises eyebrows, but the Spartans have enough quality wins to stay in the “lock” category-for now.
As for Iowa? A 12-6 finish and sole possession of fourth place feels like a realistic projection. But in a league this deep, every game matters.
Tier 3B: NCAA Hopefuls
Indiana, Illinois, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota
This group is living on the bubble. Each team has enough talent to make a run, but consistency will be the key. Most are projected to hover around 8-10 in conference play, but a few timely wins-especially against the top-tier teams-could push them into the 11-7 or 12-6 range.
Minnesota might be the most vulnerable of the bunch. That heartbreaking loss to Maryland could haunt them later in the season. Still, if they can string together some wins, they’ll stay in the mix.
Tier 4: Out of Purgatory
Wisconsin
It’s been 14 years since the Badgers won more than six Big Ten games in a season, and while that streak might not end this year, there are signs of life. Their upset win over Michigan State was a glimpse of what this team could become under first-year head coach Robin Pingeton. It’s a rebuild, but the foundation is starting to take shape.
Tier 5: Still Stuck in Neutral
Purdue, Penn State, Rutgers, Northwestern
These four programs are in a tough spot. Wins against any team outside this group will be considered upsets, and while one or two of them might sneak up on a middle-tier opponent at home, it’s likely to be another long winter in West Lafayette, University Park, Piscataway, and Evanston.
Projected Big Ten Standings (Conference Record Only)
- UCLA - 18-0
T-2. Maryland - 15-3
T-2. Michigan - 15-3
- Iowa - 12-6
- Ohio State - 11-7
T-6. Illinois - 10-8
T-6. Indiana - 10-8
T-6. Michigan State - 10-8
T-6. Nebraska - 10-8
T-6. Oregon - 10-8
T-6. USC - 10-8
T-6. Washington - 10-8
- Minnesota - 8-10
- Wisconsin - 5-13
- Purdue - 3-15
T-16. Penn State - 2-16
T-16. Rutgers - 2-16
- Northwestern - 1-17
The Big Ten is as deep as it’s ever been, and the margin for error is slim. For Iowa, the opportunity is right in front of them.
A fast start could set the tone for a top-four finish and a strong NCAA Tournament seed. But in this league, nothing comes easy-and every possession counts.