David Pollack sees Iowa as capable of hanging around against Ohio State on Saturday, but his final call still leans toward the Buckeyes.
No. 14 Iowa hosts No.
5 Ohio State in Iowa City in the week’s biggest Big Ten matchup, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Ohio State as a 14-point road favorite.
On his “See Ball Get Ball” podcast, Pollack said Iowa can make this interesting only if its offense does enough to avoid putting the defense in an impossible spot.
“I think [Iowa] has a chance because Ohio State's defense is more gettable than they've been, but to me that means Iowa has to have some passing game, a little bit of balance, run it more than they've run it, have success and defensively hold the heck on. Like just hold on, don't give up big plays, make them get in the red zone and kick 3s,” Pollack said.
That’s where Pollack’s breakdown gets sharp. He doesn’t love what he’s seen from Ohio State’s defense, which lost most of its starters from last season, including three of the top 11 picks in the NFL draft. But he also isn’t sure Iowa’s offense can take advantage, even with a run game that has been productive.
“I watched every snap of Ohio State vs. Illinois.
I thought [the Buckeyes'] defense, I think they've got some guys who flash occasionally, but they gave up over 6 yards a carry to Illinois. To give up almost 200 yards rushing, this is what Iowa is, this is who they want to be -- they want to run the football,” Pollack said.
"... Hank Brown, he needs to make a few plays down the field.
They need to be able to open it up a little bit because I know they're going to run it, and I think they can run it at a decent clip."
Iowa comes in ranked 27th nationally in rushing at 215.5 yards per game. Kamari Moulton has led the way with 284 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 7.3 yards per carry, while other backs have also chipped in.
The passing game has lagged behind, with the Hawkeyes ranked 87th nationally at 213.5 yards per game through the air. Brown has thrown for 700 yards, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions.
The Hawkeyes’ defense remains the backbone. Iowa has allowed the fewest points in college football at 8.0 per game and ranks 10th nationally in total defense at 239.8 yards allowed per game.
Still, the schedule hasn’t yet tested that unit against an offense like Ohio State’s. Iowa has shut out Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa and held down offenses from Iowa State and Michigan.
Ohio State brings two Heisman Trophy candidates into the matchup in 2025 finalist Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith, the star receiver who leads the FBS with 617 receiving yards. Sayin has thrown for 1,206 yards with 12 touchdowns and 1 interception, while Smith has 33 catches and 7 touchdowns.
Smith exploded in last week’s 42-19 win over Illinois in the Buckeyes’ Big Ten opener, finishing with 12 catches for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Pollack, though, wonders whether Ohio State’s run game could be the piece that gives Iowa a path to stay in it. The Buckeyes are averaging 156.75 rushing yards per game, which ranks 76th nationally.
“With Ohio State on the other side, man, is it anybody besides Jeremiah Smith? And here's the thing with Ohio State, can they get that run game going? ... At some point in this season they're going to need to get first downs and punch it in the red zone,” Pollack said.
Even with those questions, Pollack stuck with Ohio State in the end and expected the game to stay within reach of the spread.
“I think this is a phenomenal matchup. I think Iowa is going to keep it close,” he said.
“If you weren't watching last week, Illinois kept it close. Illinois was very much in the game until the very last little bit, but they were still very much in striking distance.
I think this is 27-13 type of a deal.
“I don't think Iowa's offense is good enough. ... It's all about the offense because I think they can hang on long enough, make them kick a few field goals to stay in the game, but the [arrow points toward] Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin.”
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