Rece Davis is going against the home team in one of Saturday’s biggest Big Ten games, and he’s not being subtle about it. The ESPN College GameDay host took No.
17 Iowa over No. 18 Michigan at the Big House, even with the Wolverines favored and holding a four-game winning streak in the series.
Davis made the call on the College GameDay Podcast, where he leaned into Iowa’s defense and the possibility that quarterback Hank Brown can handle his first career road start. “I think the Hawkeyes get it done, man,” Davis said. “I think Brown will play well enough.”
That belief starts with the way Iowa has opened the season. The Hawkeyes are 3-0 and have been suffocating on defense, allowing just 4.3 points and 176.7 yards per game. Davis pointed to those numbers as a sign that this group is still built in the old Iowa mold, but with a little more juice.
“The stats can lie, but these are really fun stats, right?” Davis said.
“Iowa gives up four points a game. Michigan's a top-10 defense, too.”
He also brought up how Iowa handled last season’s losses. The Hawkeyes finished 9-4, and all four defeats came against ranked opponents. As Davis put it: “Iowa lost four games last year, all against good teams, by a grand total of 15 points.”
Brown’s job gets harder because this will be his sixth career start and his first away from home. He has completed 45 of 62 passes for 473 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions, and he was sharp in the 55-0 win over Northern Iowa, going 12-of-12.
Iowa may also get a boost on the ground. Kamari Moulton is listed as probable after missing the Northern Iowa game with a lower-leg injury, and Xavier Williams stepped in with 151 yards and three touchdowns in that blowout.
Davis also highlighted a receiver who could help Brown stretch the field. “They've got a threat at receiver, Tony Diaz,” Davis said.
“He's been a threat downfield for them.” Diaz leads Iowa with 17 catches for 201 yards, and his 56-yard catch against Iowa State stands as the team’s longest play through the air.
Michigan’s defense will be the toughest test Brown has seen so far. The Wolverines have already piled up 10 sacks and haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown this season.
The matchup still comes with plenty of history behind it, and not much of that history has gone Iowa’s way lately. Michigan has won four straight meetings, holding the Hawkeyes to 20 total points in those games. Iowa’s last win at Michigan Stadium came in 2010.
The Wolverines have been good, but not exactly clean, during their 3-0 start under first-year coach Kyle Whittingham. They opened with a 13-12 win over Western Michigan on a controversial last-second Hail Mary, then beat No. 11 Oklahoma 17-10 before rolling past UTEP 52-17.
Ball security has been the glaring problem. Michigan has fumbled six times and lost four of them.
“Big concern,” Whittingham said after the UTEP win. “Hopefully that can slow down because six in three games is way too many.”
Quarterback Bryce Underwood has given Michigan production in multiple ways. He has thrown for 504 yards with three touchdowns and one interception, and he also leads the team in rushing with 156 yards and two scores.
The Wolverines could be missing another piece up front as well. Starting right tackle Andrew Sprague sat out against UTEP with an injury, and Whittingham said he was hopeful Sprague would play.
If Davis is right, Iowa’s road win would set up “a huge showdown in Kinnick next week” when Ohio State comes to Iowa City on Oct. 3.
Kickoff in Ann Arbor is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
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