Iowa’s quarterback situation is still foggy enough that the over/under conversation feels like a guessing game with a few useful clues. Kirk Ferentz and Tim Lester apparently still don’t know who will open the 2026 season under center against Northern Illinois, with fourth-year Auburn transfer Hank Brown and third-year Wake Forest transfer Jeremy Hecklinski both in the mix.
That uncertainty matters, because last year’s numbers were built around a clear answer in Mark Gronowski. This time, the Hawkeyes are trying to project production without knowing who is actually steering the offense in week one. Still, there are some reasonable lines to draw.
The first one lands at 1,750 passing yards. Iowa hasn’t had a quarterback crack 2,000 yards since Nate Stanley nearly reached 3,000 in 2019, and Lester’s first two seasons haven’t exactly screamed aerial explosion. Over the last two years, Iowa has averaged 1,726 passing yards when you combine the production from Gronowski, Brendan Sullivan, Cade McNamara and Jackson Stratton.
Even so, the number feels reachable if the starter settles in quickly. Gronowski finished with 1,741 yards last season, and Lester has already pointed out on podcasts that his quarterback wasn’t aggressive enough early in the year.
Add in a year in the Shanahan-style offense, plus a receiving group that should include DJ Vonnahme, Reece Vander Zee, Tony Diaz and others, and the over looks like the play. It’s not a massive leap, but for Iowa, anything approaching 2,000 yards would be a meaningful jump.
The touchdown line is set at 11.5, and that one also leans over. Iowa has spent a long time living far away from big passing touchdown totals.
The last quarterback to throw for more than 10 touchdowns in his first full, normal season as the starter was Stanley in 2017, when he threw 26. The last Hawkeye to top 20 touchdown passes in his career was Spencer Petras, who finished with 24.
Since Ferentz took over in 1999, only seven Iowa quarterbacks have reached 30 career passing touchdowns, with Stanley’s 68 the most recent example.
But there’s at least some reason to think the number can climb this fall. First-year full-time starters at Iowa have averaged 18.3 touchdown passes when you look at Gronowski and Brad Banks, and Lester’s offense should be better equipped to create chances than what Gronowski had to work with early last season.
Gronowski threw 10 touchdown passes in 2025, and the sense here is that a healthier, more comfortable quarterback in a second year in the system could push that total higher. Fourteen passing touchdowns would qualify as a step forward for this group, and that’s enough to justify the over.
Completion percentage is the trickiest line of the three, sitting at 62.5%. Over the last two seasons, Iowa has averaged 65.2% completion rate with Gronowski, Sullivan and McNamara. If you widen the lens to include the previous ten first-year starters, the average falls to 59.5%.
The recent trend under Lester is encouraging. Sullivan completed 71.7% of his passes in 2024, and Gronowski finished at 63.4%.
Brown has the more substantial sample, completing 61.6% of his 73 career passes between Iowa and Auburn. Hecklinski, meanwhile, has completed just two passes for eight yards as a Hawkeye.
That said, the under makes the most sense here. Brown’s experience has mostly come against FCS or Group of 5 opponents, and his Power 4 numbers don’t inspire a ton of confidence - he went 7-of-13 for 72 yards and three interceptions against Arkansas, and 5-of-13 for 48 yards with an interception against Indiana.
If Brown wins the job, the offense may lean more on checkdowns and keep the completion rate steadier. If Hecklinski gets the nod, the throws downfield could come with more misses and more turnovers.
Either way, 62.5% feels a little rich.
In Other News...
Iowa Just Lost A Young Receiver At The Worst Time
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His departure leaves a noticeable gap in a position group that was already counting on development from younger players. Iowa still has options with eligibility remaining, but the loss of a receiver with Smiths upside makes the path forward a little less straightforward, especially for a team that needs every promising pass catcher it can keep in the pipeline. [Read more 🡒]
One Former Hawkeye Is Starting To Separate In Summer League
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Stirtz had the most eye-catching all-around line for Oklahoma City, finishing with 22 points, six assists, two rebounds, one steal and one block in 30 minutes. Sandfort added 19 points off the bench, and Dix kept his starting spot with 14 points, six rebounds, one assist and one block, leaving the Thunders Iowa trio with plenty of individual production even as the bigger question around their summer run still hangs in the balance. [Read more 🡒]
Tate Sage Steps Into A Bigger Iowa Role At The Right Time
Tate Sages freshman season ended with a burst that gave Iowa a glimpse of what he could become, and the guard has spent the summer trying to turn that promise into something more dependable. After arriving as a young piece in the rotation, Sage has used practice time to sharpen his game and build the conditioning needed for a bigger workload, all while the Hawkeyes prepare for a season that will ask more of everyone in the backcourt.
Sages timing matters because Iowa is moving forward without Bennett Stirtz, which changes the way the offense will have to function. Rather than leaning on one clear centerpiece, the Hawkeyes appear headed toward a more shared approach, and Sage said he expects to be involved more often with the ball, around the rim, and as a scorer when needed. [Read more 🡒]