Iowa’s path to the College Football Playoff is pretty simple from here: keep winning, and keep an eye on the chaos around them.
The belief here is that a 10-2 Iowa Hawkeyes team gets in. The reasoning is straightforward enough - a 10-2 Power Four team has never been passed over for a 9-3 team, and the idea is that precedent still matters.
So the Hawkeyes’ best route is to win out and let the rest sort itself out. Still, a little help from the scoreboard never hurts.
That means Iowa fans have a full slate of games to monitor, especially the ones that could knock teams down a peg and open a lane for the Hawkeyes to move up.
One of the clearest spots to watch is Illinois at No. 4 UCLA on Friday night.
The rooting guide points to Illinois, with the note that UCLA is 9-0 but still has not faced Illinois, Michigan, or USC. Two losses for the Bruins is not out of the question.
Another easy call comes in No. 14 Houston at Colorado on Friday night. The pick is Colorado, since a Houston loss would clear at least one more team out of Iowa’s way in the rankings.
Saturday brings a long list of matchups with playoff ripple effects. Duke at No.
7 Miami is one of them, and Iowa fans are told to pull for Duke. The idea is simple: if Miami, which was No. 1 in the country, drops again, Iowa can see how far the Hurricanes slide.
There’s also No. 14 Wake Forest at SMU, where the rooting guide says Northwestern. Ohio State’s playoff chances are described as being on life support, and a fourth loss would remove them from affecting Iowa at all.
No. 3 Alabama at Vanderbilt is another game Iowa fans should watch closely, with Vanderbilt as the preferred outcome. Alabama already has two losses, and a third would make for a fascinating drop in the rankings.
At noon, No. 8 Tennessee visits Texas A&M, and the guide again goes against the higher-ranked team.
Texas A&M is the pick, with the thought that Tennessee, sitting with two losses, is in the same neighborhood as Iowa. If the Vols lose and Iowa wins, the two teams could flip.
Boston College at No. 5 Notre Dame is listed next, with Boston College as the rooting choice.
The article admits it is unlikely, but says a Notre Dame loss would be the end of the road for the Irish. “Miracles happen, right?”
No. 22 Missouri at No.
1 Georgia follows, and Georgia is the pick there. The Bulldogs are considered in the field unless something catastrophic happens, and a Missouri loss would remove another team from the mix.
There’s also No. 18 USC at No.
9 Indiana, where the guide leans Indiana. It says there is a case either way, but the preference is for USC to take a third loss and fall out of contention.
Michigan at No. 16 Oregon is another one Iowa fans should circle, and the rooting guide goes with Michigan. Oregon has climbed to sit right behind Iowa, and one more Ducks loss would be a major boost for the Hawkeyes.
Baylor at No. 10 BYU is next, with Baylor as the choice. The logic is that a BYU loss would give them a third defeat, and Iowa would jump them in that case.
At 4:15 p.m., 19 Ole Miss visits Oklahoma, and the guide says Oklahoma. Another loss would give Ole Miss four, which would end their playoff hopes.
Florida at No. 11 Kentucky comes after that, and Florida is the pick. Kentucky was blown out by Tennessee last week, and another loss would let Iowa move past the Wildcats.
No. 2 Utah at No.
23 Arizona is another matchup with direct Iowa implications, and the rooting guide says Utah. Arizona would be taking its third loss, and a three-loss Big 12 team is not making the field.
No. 6 Texas at No.
21 LSU is listed with LSU as the preferred result. The article says both sides are arguable, but if Texas drops its third loss, that is the outcome to take.
No. 17 South Carolina at Arkansas rounds out the evening slate, with Arkansas as the pick. A South Carolina loss would eliminate them and make the playoff picture even cleaner for Iowa.
The final game on the list is No. 12 Texas Tech at No.
25 Oklahoma State, where the rooting guide goes with Oklahoma State. A Texas Tech loss, paired with an Iowa win, would at least put the two teams in a position to swap places.
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But the first loss of the season also laid bare a problem Iowa cant brush aside. Virginia Tech shot 54% from the field, and the Hawkeyes left too many points at the line by missing 16 free throws, two issues that can undo a good offensive showing in a hurry. For a team trying to build on an unbeaten start, the margin for error just got a lot smaller. [Read more 🡒]