Iowa’s latest ESPN FPI update didn’t send the Hawkeyes tumbling after the loss to Ohio State, and that’s the real takeaway here. At 4-1, Iowa still has a workable path in front of it, and the margin for error hasn’t disappeared just because the Buckeyes handed it a defeat.
The Hawkeyes dropped out of the FPI top 25 after their brief stay there, but the slide was a modest one. Iowa landed at No. 26, which says plenty about how ESPN’s model viewed the setback.
This wasn’t a collapse. It was a loss to one of the nation’s top teams, and not the kind of result that should trigger alarm bells.
The bigger issue is what changed in the playoff picture. Iowa’s College Football Playoff odds took about a 10% hit this week, which adds more weight to Friday night’s trip to Seattle to face Washington. That game has become a big one for both teams, and the urgency around it is obvious.
Even with the drop, Iowa’s overall outlook still points toward a strong season finish. ESPN FPI projects the Hawkeyes at 8.1-3.9, gives them a 97.0% chance to reach a bowl game, and keeps their chance to win out at 2.1%.
The Big Ten title number sits at 0.8%, while the playoff odds are 12.4%. The model also lists Iowa at 0.4% to make the national championship and 0.1% to win it.
There’s also some validation in how the ranking handled the Ohio State loss. Iowa wasn’t buried for it, and that matters after the frustration around how long it took the Hawkeyes to finally crack the top 25 in the first place. The model made Iowa win at Michigan before it would give them that spot, and now the Hawkeyes are back on the outside by only one place.
A win at Washington would change the mood fast. It would push Iowa right back into the top 25 and keep the season’s bigger goals in play. That’s easier said than done, of course, but it’s exactly the kind of game Iowa needs right now.
Last season, Iowa had chances in these spots when the stakes were rising and came up short. This year, Friday night offers a chance to break that pattern and keep everything still within reach.
In Other News...
Iowa Lost Saturday But Kinnick Still Showed What Makes This Program Different
Saturdays loss to Ohio State did not change what makes an Iowa home game feel different from so many others around college football. ESPNs College GameDay was on campus for the first time this season, and before kickoff the crew stopped at the University of Iowa Childrens Hospital, spending time with patients and families as part of a visit that fit right into the atmosphere around Kinnick Stadium.
The bigger story there has always been more than what happens on the field. The Wave remains one of the sports most recognizable traditions, and it reflects the kind of local support that has long defined Iowa football. Even on a tough afternoon, the scene around Kinnick served as a reminder that this programs connection to its community is part of the draw. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa's QB Picture Just Got More Complicated Ahead Of Washington
Iowas Week 6 depth chart added another layer to an already fluid quarterback situation heading into Washington, with Hank Brown listed as the starter even after getting banged up in the previous game. Browns status has been a talking point all week, and the release only sharpened the focus on how the Hawkeyes plan to handle the most important spot on the field.
Jeremy Hecklinski is still in the mix after stepping in and performing well in Browns place, so Iowa does have another option if the game script or Browns availability pushes it that way. The rest of the offensive picture looks a little more settled, with Kamari Moulton listed as the lead back, though the Hawkeyes are clearly still planning to rotate other running backs into the mix. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa Faces A Desperate Washington Team In A Huge Road Test
Friday night brings Iowa into a tricky Big Ten road test against Washington, a matchup that carries a different kind of urgency for both programs. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 and looking to head into their bye week at 5-1, a mark that would keep their season moving in the right direction after a strong start.
Washington, meanwhile, is the team with more immediate pressure. At 3-2, the Huskies need a win to keep their College Football Playoff hopes from slipping further, and this is only the second Big Ten meeting between the programs, with Iowa holding a 4-3 edge in the all-time series. For Iowa, it is the kind of road game that can say plenty about where this team stands in the league race. [Read more 🡒]