Iowa State doesn’t need a miracle to leave Kinnick Stadium with the Cy-Hawk trophy. It needs control.
It needs a quarterback who can turn chaos into advantage. And it needs the kind of late-game poise that has defined this rivalry’s tightest finishes.
Saturday night’s 2026 matchup in Iowa City comes with the usual pressure points, but the path for the Cyclones is pretty clear: win enough at the line of scrimmage, let quarterback Rocco Becht do damage when plays break down, and keep the score tight enough for Kyle Konrardy to matter again.
The run game is the first piece. Iowa State has to run the ball well enough to open up play-action, while also making sure Iowa doesn’t do the same thing to the Cyclones.
That sounds simple, but the Cy-Hawk game has a way of mocking simple plans. The No.
21 Hawkeyes have outrushed Iowa State by an average of 71 yards over the last two meetings - 167.5 to 96.5 - and still lost both games. So the numbers only tell part of the story.
What matters is which front wears down first and which team can keep enough bodies fresh when the rotation gets deeper.
That’s especially relevant with Jimmy Rogers making his first Cy-Hawk appearance as Iowa State’s head coach. The Cyclones have talked all season about playing a lot of people, and if that depth holds up under Kinnick’s lights, it could become a real edge.
Then there’s Becht, the 6-1, 208-pound senior transfer from Arkansas State who has already won 21 games as a starter, tied for the third most among active FBS quarterbacks. He’s 0-3 against ranked teams in his career, and this will be one of the most hostile settings he’s ever stepped into.
But Iowa State brought him in for games like this. Becht wants the stage, and if he can use his dual-threat ability for four quarters without giving the ball away, he can create problems for a Hawkeyes defense that is still relatively green.
Of course, Iowa’s Phil Parker won’t make that easy. The veteran defensive coordinator will have a plan to cut down Becht’s impact both as a passer and as a runner.
Still, Becht’s best trait might be the thing that shows up when the structure falls apart. When the play breaks down, he can make it dangerous.
And if the game stays close, Konrardy becomes a real factor again. The winning team in the Cy-Hawk game has topped 20 points only once since 2017, and the last eight meetings have been decided by 10 points or fewer.
Iowa State’s kicker has already lived that script. His 54-yard field goals in each of the past two meetings with Iowa were game winners, and Rogers called the former walk-on one of the most talented players on the roster.
Konrardy is comfortable from 65 yards in, and pressure doesn’t seem to shake him.
That’s the real setup here. If the Cyclones can keep this one within striking distance, they have a kicker who has already shown he can finish the job.
There’s plenty riding on it for Iowa State. A win in Rogers’ first Cy-Hawk game, especially as an underdog, would say plenty about how the Cyclones are being viewed nationally and where they stand in the Big 12 picture. Iowa, meanwhile, hasn’t officially won the Cy-Hawk game since the 27-17 result in 2021, since the 20-13 win in 2023 was vacated.
The stage is set for Kinnick under the lights, with a full house and NBC/Peacock carrying it to a national audience. The line has climbed from 11.5 points to 13.5 to 14.5 depending on the sportsbook, but the history of this series keeps pushing back on the idea of a comfortable favorite.
If Iowa State can slow Kamari Moulton and the Hawkeyes’ ground game, this has the chance to turn into another tense, low-scoring battle. Still, Iowa’s defense should be strong enough to keep the Cyclones from finding too many explosive plays.
Iowa 23, Iowa State 13.
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Kellys appeal is easy to see from an Iowa perspective. He brings shooting, playmaking, size and rebounding to the table, which makes him a fit for a modern frontcourt wing spot, even if evaluators still have questions about his quickness. With multiple Big Ten and Big East programs in the mix, this visit gives Iowa a chance to make an impression early and start shaping what could become a meaningful recruitment down the line. [Read more 🡒]
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Kirk Ferentz described it as a tactical adjustment tied to the personnel on hand, a way to add versatility while getting more linebackers on the field and easing some of the burden on a less experienced defensive line. It was just one wrinkle in an early-season game, but for a defense that has built its identity on being difficult to solve, it could become a useful option as the schedule gets tougher. [Read more 🡒]