Iowa heads into its road matchup with Northwestern carrying a long list of numbers that point in different directions, and the cleanest one is this: the Hawkeyes have owned the series.
Iowa leads the all-time matchup 55-28-3, and the most recent meeting went the Hawkeyes’ way in a 40-14 win in 2024. Even with that edge, the games haven’t all been comfortable. Six of the last nine meetings have been decided by seven points or less.
Under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa has seen Northwestern 24 times, and the Hawkeyes’ scoring line has told a pretty clear story. When Iowa puts up 21 points or more, it is 9-3. When it finishes below 21, it is 4-8.
The Hawkeyes also arrive with some momentum from last week’s 30-0 shutout of Wisconsin. That was Iowa’s first shutout against an AP-ranked team since 1960, when it beat No.
6 Northwestern 42-0. The performance included a sharp day from Hank Brown, whose 83.3% completion percentage against the Badgers is the highest by any Iowa quarterback in a Big Ten game since at least 1995, with a minimum of 20 attempts.
November has been a strong month for Iowa in recent years, too. The Hawkeyes have won 23 of their last 28 November games dating back to 2019.
Northwestern, meanwhile, has settled into its new home. The Wildcats are 3-0 at Ryan Field since the stadium opened on Oct. 2, and the venue carries a staggering price tag near $875 million, making it the most expensive stadium in college football history.
There are also some familiar faces on both sides. Northwestern offensive lineman Jace Borcherding, a Cedar Rapids Xavier alum, has appeared in three games this season. Defensive back Brenden Deasfernandes was on Iowa’s 2023 roster and now has 14 total tackles for the Wildcats.
At quarterback, Northwestern is expected to be without starter Aidan Chiles because of an upper body injury. That likely pushes Nicco Marchiol into the starting role. Marchiol played in four games last season for West Virginia and threw for 720 yards and two touchdowns.
The matchup also brings a clash of strengths. Iowa is second in the Big Ten in rushing defense at 79 yards allowed per game and has given up just 2.4 yards per carry. Northwestern, though, is averaging 200.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks second in the conference.
On defense, Northwestern has a playmaker in Braydon Brus, who has 13 tackles for loss and ranks third in the Big Ten with 68 total tackles, two behind Iowa’s Cam Buffington.
In the passing game, Griffin Wilde has been Northwestern’s top big-play threat, averaging 17.3 yards per catch and piling up 761 receiving yards. For Iowa, Tony Diaz leads the way with 461 receiving yards, the most by an Iowa receiver in a season since 2019.
Northwestern’s offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly, brings a long coaching background to the game, with head-coaching stops at Oregon from 2009-2012, the Philadelphia Eagles from 2013-2015, the San Francisco 49ers in 2016 and UCLA from 2018-23.
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The practical response starts up front, where Iowa will have Michael Myslinski at center this week with Cael Winter out. In a game where communication matters as much as execution, the Hawkeyes are preparing to lean on a silent cadence and the kind of discipline that can keep a crowd from becoming a factor. It is the sort of road test that can expose even small issues, and Iowa knows the noise at Ryan Field will be part of the story long before the first snap settles in. [Read more 🡒]