The Iowa Hawkeyes have quietly pieced together a two-game win streak, stabilizing themselves after a rough patch in Big Ten play. At 14-5 overall and sitting at .500 in conference action (4-4), Ben McCollum’s team is showing signs of turning the corner. But if you were hoping that momentum would translate into a boost in NCAA Tournament projections, you might be scratching your head right now.
Despite recent wins over Indiana and Rutgers, Iowa actually dropped a seed line in the latest bracketology projections. And that happened during a weekend when the Hawkeyes didn’t even take the floor. It’s a reminder of how fluid - and sometimes unforgiving - the bracket landscape can be, especially in a crowded Big Ten race where every result across the country can shift the puzzle.
Looking ahead, Iowa gets back to action on January 28 when they host USC at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. That matchup looms large - not just because it's a chance to extend the win streak, but because the Trojans are part of that "Last Four In" bubble tier. A win there could be a résumé booster, especially as the selection committee starts to weigh quality wins more heavily down the stretch.
Where Iowa Stands in the Bracket
In the latest projection, Iowa lands as a No. 8 seed, drawing a first-round matchup against No. 9 Texas A&M.
That’s a classic toss-up game - the kind of 8-9 battle that can go either way and often hinges on guard play and late-game execution. Win that, and the Hawkeyes would likely face top-seeded Duke in the second round.
Not exactly a walk in the park, but also not unfamiliar territory for a program that’s made a habit of grinding its way into the tournament conversation.
Here’s how the projected region shapes up around Iowa:
- **No. 1 Duke vs.
No. 16 Navy**
- **No. 8 Iowa vs.
No. 9 Texas A&M**
- **No. 5 Arkansas vs.
No. 12 FAU**
- **No. 4 Texas Tech vs.
No. 13 Hawaii**
- **No. 6 Louisville vs.
No. 11 UCLA / No.
11 New Mexico**
- **No.
3 Iowa State vs. No.
14 Portland State**
- **No.
7 Kentucky vs. No.
10 NC State**
- **No.
2 Purdue vs. No.
15 Wright State**
It’s a bracket loaded with power-conference depth and dangerous mid-majors - the kind of field where no seed line is safe. For Iowa, the key will be sustaining this recent momentum and continuing to build a case with both wins and metrics.
Top Seeds and Conference Muscle
The top of the bracket remains stacked. Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and UConn hold the No. 1 seeds for now, with Purdue, Gonzaga, Houston, and Nebraska filling out the No. 2 line. That gives the Big Ten two of the top eight seeds - Purdue and Nebraska - and a total of 10 teams projected in the field, the most of any conference.
Here’s the full breakdown by conference:
- Big Ten: 10
- ACC: 9
- SEC: 9
- Big 12: 7
- Big East: 4
- Mountain West: 3
- West Coast: 2
That kind of depth makes every conference game feel like a mini-tournament. For Iowa, every win is a chance to separate from the pack - and every loss risks falling back into the bubble conversation.
Bubble Watch: Who’s In, Who’s Out
The bubble is as crowded as ever, and it’s where teams like USC - Iowa’s next opponent - are trying to hang on. Here’s a quick look at the current bubble status:
- Last Four Byes: NC State, Miami, Seton Hall, Ohio State
- Last Four In: UCLA, New Mexico, USC, Virginia Tech
- First Four Out: Stanford, Santa Clara, Texas, Indiana
- Next Four Out: Missouri, Creighton, Baylor, TCU
That’s a lot of notable programs either barely in or just outside the cut line. And it underscores how important every game becomes from here on out - not just for Iowa, but for every team trying to avoid the First Four in Dayton or, worse, missing the field entirely.
What’s Next for Iowa?
The Hawkeyes have some rest before they take the floor again, and that might be a good thing. It gives McCollum’s squad a chance to regroup, refocus, and prepare for a critical Big Ten stretch run. The USC game offers a chance to solidify their place in the bracket - and maybe even climb back up a seed line or two.
With the Big Ten as deep as it is, Iowa doesn’t need to be perfect down the stretch. But they do need to keep stacking wins - especially against fellow tournament hopefuls.
The path to March is still wide open. Now it’s about how they navigate it.