The Iowa Hawkeyes are heading into the holiday break with a strong 10-2 record, and while the schedule has yet to fully heat up, the numbers under the hood are painting a pretty compelling picture. With one final non-conference game against UMass-Lowell on Dec.
29, Iowa will dive into Big Ten play on Jan. 3 at home against UCLA. And as we look ahead to conference play, it’s clear this team has carved out a statistical identity that’s both efficient and, at times, quietly dominant.
Efficiency Kings on Offense
Let’s start with the offense, where Iowa has been lights-out. According to KenPom, the Hawkeyes sit 19th overall, thanks in large part to their ability to dominate games against lower-tier opponents.
While they haven’t notched a signature win yet, their two losses came on the road to top-13 teams-so the resume isn’t hurting as much as some might think. And when Iowa wins, they win big, which helps the advanced metrics love them even more.
Dig a little deeper and you’ll find Iowa ranks 28th in adjusted offensive efficiency. That’s not by accident.
The Hawkeyes are fifth in the nation in effective field goal percentage at 60.8%. They’re knocking down 39.1% of their threes (16th nationally) and converting an eye-popping 62.2% of their two-point shots-seventh-best in the country.
That’s the kind of balance that makes them a nightmare to guard.
And the pace? Don’t let it fool you.
Iowa plays slow-really slow. They average just under 73 possessions per game, ranking 358th in the country.
But that deliberate tempo is by design. They’re 349th in overall tempo, according to EvanMiya, but they’re making every possession count.
Synergy has them eighth nationally in points per possession, and that’s a stat that speaks volumes about their offensive execution.
Halfcourt Precision, Transition Punch
What’s most impressive is how efficient Iowa is in the halfcourt. A staggering 90.4% of their offensive possessions come in the halfcourt, and they rank in the 97th percentile in points per possession in those sets.
That’s elite-level execution in structured offense. But don’t sleep on their transition game either.
Even though just 9.6% of their possessions come in transition, they’re in the 99th percentile in points per possession there, converting nearly 70% of their shots in those situations-including 41-of-50 inside the arc. That’s absurd efficiency.
Spot-up shooting has been a major weapon. Iowa ranks in the 96th percentile in that category, and they’re hitting 43.5% of their spot-up threes.
One name stands out here: Bennett Stirtz. He’s 22-of-49 on spot-up threes, and his ability to stretch the floor has been a key to Iowa’s spacing and rhythm.
Against zone defenses, Iowa has been downright surgical. They’re averaging 1.708 points per possession-good for the 100th percentile nationally.
And when it comes to cutting actions, they’re converting 71% of those looks. That’s the kind of off-ball movement and finishing that breaks defenses down from the inside out.
Room for Growth Around the Rim
Not everything has been perfect, though. One area that’s raised some concern is finishing at the rim-particularly against high-major opponents.
In a recent three-game stretch against tougher competition, Iowa went 28-of-57 on layups. That’s not going to cut it in Big Ten play.
For a team that relies heavily on interior scoring, they’ll need to be more consistent finishing through contact and against length.
Defensive Identity Taking Shape
Defensively, Iowa has been better than advertised. They’ve embraced a slower, grind-it-out style-ranking 24th-slowest in pace across Division I-and it’s working.
Haslametrics has them ranked 13th in defensive efficiency, allowing fewer than 93 points per 100 possessions against opposing offenses. That’s a testament to their discipline and defensive connectivity.
One standout stat? Iowa ranks eighth in the country in defensive field goal attempt rate, meaning they’re making life difficult for opponents just to get shots up.
And when teams do get shots off, Iowa’s forcing tough looks. They’re holding opponents to 29.3% from three (23rd nationally), 31.8% on mid-range shots (32nd), and 41.3% overall from the field (49th).
That’s a defense that’s not giving anything away for free.
They’re also doing a great job defending late in the shot clock. Eight percent of their defensive possessions end in the final four seconds, and they’re allowing just 0.476 points per possession in those situations-ranking in the 95th percentile.
In halfcourt defense overall, they’re in the 92nd percentile. Simply put, they’re making teams work for everything.
Rebounding and Rim Protection: The Next Step
If there’s one area where Iowa needs to level up, it’s on the glass. They rank 147th in offensive rebounding and 118th on the defensive boards.
That’s middle-of-the-pack stuff, and in a physical Big Ten, it could become a problem. They’re also just in the 42nd percentile in second-chance points and putbacks.
On the defensive end, they’ve struggled against cutting actions-ranking in the 26th percentile-and they’re below average at protecting the rim. Opponents are getting nearly 37% of their shots at the rim and converting at a 58.7% clip.
That’s an area where Iowa has to tighten the screws.
Forcing Mistakes, Creating Chaos
One thing Iowa’s defense is doing exceptionally well? Forcing turnovers-especially the unforced kind.
They’re fourth nationally in defensive turnover rate and second in non-steal turnover percentage. That means they’re pressuring opponents into mistakes without always needing to gamble for steals.
That’s smart, disciplined defense.
The Big Picture
In the latest composite rankings from Basket Under Review, Iowa sits 17th. They’re 13th in the NET rankings despite lacking a Quadrant I win, and they’re currently 1.12 wins above the bubble.
With three winnable games on the horizon-UMass-Lowell, UCLA, and a road trip to Minnesota-the Hawkeyes have a chance to build real momentum heading into the heart of Big Ten play. Win all three, and they’d be more than two wins above the bubble.
KenPom projects Iowa to finish 22-9 overall and 12-8 in the Big Ten. They’re underdogs in six of their remaining games, but four of those are coin-flip, one-possession matchups-including a home game against Michigan and a tough road tilt at Purdue.
Final Thoughts
This Iowa team may not have the flashiest resume yet, but the analytics tell the story of a group that’s highly efficient, well-coached, and capable of winning in multiple ways. If they can clean up their finishing at the rim and tighten the rebounding, they have the tools to make real noise in the Big Ten.
And if the shooting stays this hot? Look out.