The Iowa Hawkeyes are quietly building a strong case for March, even if the résumé still lacks that signature win. At 16-5 overall and 6-4 in Big Ten play, Ben McCollum’s squad has taken care of business against the bottom half of the conference.
But when it’s come time to punch up-against the likes of Iowa State, Michigan State, Purdue, and Illinois-they’ve come up short. That’s the one lingering question: Can this team beat a ranked opponent when it counts?
Still, the Hawkeyes aren’t sweating the bubble right now. According to the latest bracket projections, Iowa is holding steady as a No. 8 seed-a spot they’ve occupied for a few weeks now.
That’s a good place to be in early February, especially with a few winnable games on the horizon. While they’re not a lock just yet, Iowa is firmly in control of its own fate.
Let’s talk metrics. Iowa’s résumé is a bit of a mixed bag.
Their rankings span from the high 40s in KPI to the low 20s in the NET, averaging out to a solid 30th nationally. That’s comfortably inside the tournament field.
But here’s where it gets interesting: performance ratings-those that factor in how well a team is actually playing-have Iowa ranked 22nd. That suggests the Hawkeyes might be even better than the résumé shows, and that’s a promising sign as the schedule tightens up.
And it will tighten up. According to BPI, Iowa’s remaining schedule jumps from the 70th-toughest in the country to 17th.
That’s a major leap, and it means the Hawkeyes are about to get tested. But they’ve already shown some grit on the road, picking up a key Quadrant 1A win at Indiana back in mid-January.
Add in Sunday’s 18-point victory at Oregon, and it’s clear this team can travel and win in tough environments.
Looking ahead, the next three games offer a golden opportunity to solidify their position. First up is a winnable matchup with Washington.
Then comes a home game against Northwestern, followed by a road trip to Maryland. If Iowa can string those together, they’ll be sitting at 19-5 overall and 9-4 in Big Ten play.
That kind of run wouldn’t just keep them in the field-it could start shifting the conversation toward seeding.
Bottom line: Iowa’s in a good spot. They’ve handled the games they were supposed to win, and now the challenge is to rise to the moment when the stakes are higher.
The pieces are there, the metrics are favorable, and the path is clear. Now it’s just about execution.