Ohio State took the kind of hit that changes the conversation fast.
The Buckeyes entered the season knowing their schedule left almost no room for mistakes, and after Texas walked out with the win, that reality is staring them in the face. Ryan Day’s team let the Longhorns linger into the second half, then watched Arch Manning and Texas explode for 21 fourth-quarter points to pull off the stunner. Now Ohio State’s playoff outlook is still alive, but the road back to the 12-team bracket is a lot less forgiving.
The good news for the Buckeyes is that the path is still there. The bad news is that the path is lined with ranked teams.
Ohio State’s toughest remaining games include trips to No. 21 Iowa on Oct.
3, No. 5 Indiana on Oct. 17 and No.
14 USC on Oct. 31, plus home dates with No. 6 Oregon on Nov. 7 and Michigan on Nov.
- That’s a brutal run for any team.
For a program with Ohio State’s expectations, it’s a weekly referendum.
There’s still a version of this season where the Buckeyes can afford another slip. A three-loss finish is at least possible, though that feels unlikely unless one of those defeats comes in the Big Ten Championship Game. More realistically, Ohio State probably needs to land somewhere in the 10-2 or 11-1 neighborhood to feel good about its playoff case.
An 11-1 finish would make the math simple: win out, take the Big Ten, and the Buckeyes are back in. That’s the cleanest route, and it’s still on the board. But with four games left against nationally ranked competition - and likely five if Michigan jumps back into the rankings this week - clean is not the word that fits this schedule.
The more likely lane is 10-2, with Ohio State taking one more loss and still reaching the Big Ten title game. That keeps the Buckeyes in the mix, though the cushion gets thinner every time they stumble. Even so, the idea of Ohio State dropping multiple games to unranked opponents isn’t the scenario anyone around this team expects.
A 9-3 finish is where things get dangerous. No three-loss team has made the CFP without playing in a conference championship game, and Ohio State would need a strong argument built on the quality of its schedule.
Texas would have to stay elite to keep that early loss looking as respectable as possible, and some of the Buckeyes’ other résumé points could lose shine if results elsewhere shift. Oregon’s Week 2 stumble already changes how much weight that matchup may carry later on, while Michigan could end up being the kind of marquee win that helps the case.
That said, if Ohio State finishes 9-3 and misses the Big Ten Championship Game, the Buckeyes could find themselves trapped in a crowded pile of deserving teams fighting for the last spots. That’s the danger of a schedule this loaded: it can help you, but it can also leave you with too many chances to be judged.
For now, the most important game left on the board is the road trip to Iowa.
Ohio State has a bye this week, then gets Kent State and Illinois before heading to Kinnick Stadium. The Buckeyes should be 3-1 by then, and that matchup on Oct. 3 could decide the tone of the rest of the season. If Ohio State loses there, the chances of navigating Indiana, USC and Oregon start looking awfully slim before the regular-season finale against Michigan.
A win over Iowa would give Ohio State a ranked victory and a much-needed boost before the schedule tightens in mid-October. A loss, and the Buckeyes’ margin for error could vanish in a hurry.
In Other News...
Iowa Turns Cy-Hawk Weekend Into A Huge Test For Ben McCollum
Cy-Hawk weekend is already one of the biggest recruiting stages on the Iowa calendar, and Ben McCollum is using it to his advantage. With the football rivalry bringing plenty of eyes to Iowa City, the Hawkeyes are hosting top basketball prospects Cayden Daughtry and Cole Kelly as part of McCollums push to build out the programs future.
Daughtry arrives as a highly regarded 2027 target, while Kelly is emerging as a name to watch in the 2028 class. For McCollum, getting both prospects on campus during a high-profile weekend gives Iowa a chance to sell more than basketball, with atmosphere and timing adding extra weight to visits that could matter down the line. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa's Early QB Pipeline Is Giving Fans A New Reason To Watch
Iowas quarterback room may not be the only place worth watching in the years ahead. Chase Grove, a 2028 quarterback prospect from North Central High School in Indianapolis, has already committed to the Hawkeyes, giving the program an early head start on a player whose coaches have long pointed to his football IQ and leadership as standout traits. Grove picked Iowa over several other offers, and his bond with the staff helped make the fit feel natural well before his high school career reaches its final chapters.
For Iowa fans, the appeal goes beyond the usual recruiting buzz that comes with an early commitment. Grove has already shown he can produce both as a passer and as a runner, which makes him an intriguing piece for a program always looking to build depth and stability at the position. The next question is how his development unfolds from here, but Iowa has clearly done enough to land a quarterback the staff believes it can build around. [Read more 🡒]
Kirk Ferentz Just Kept Iowas Quarterback Debate Alive
Kirk Ferentz came away from Iowas in-state rivalry game talking less about the final result and more about what his young team can take from it. At the center of that conversation was Hank Brown, who got the start and showed poise under pressure, moving the offense with a steady hand while the Hawkeyes tried to find answers against a familiar opponent.
Ferentz made it clear the quarterback picture is still very much open, and he framed it as something Iowa will sort through on a week-by-week basis. Browns performance gave the staff something to build on, but Jeremy Hecklinski remains part of the conversation too, which means the Hawkeyes are still carrying one of the more watched decisions on the roster into the next stretch. [Read more 🡒]