The scoreboard said Iowa won, but ESPN’s updated FPI didn’t exactly reward the Hawkeyes for it.
After opening the season with a 40-0 rout of Northern Illinois, Iowa slipped one spot in the rankings. The latest update brought a much bigger hit, as the Hawkeyes dropped six places to No. 32 following their 16-13 win over Iowa State.
That’s the strange part of the Cy-Hawk game: winning is the only thing that matters, but the model doesn’t care much about the emotion or the rivalry edge. Iowa got to 2-0 with a hard-fought victory in a game that was ugly at times, and ESPN’s numbers treated it like a step backward.
The Hawkeyes’ defense was dominant, special teams were excellent, and the offense did just enough to finish the job in a game that’s almost always tight. Still, the FPI took a colder view of the result.
Iowa’s projected record stayed the same in the updated metrics, but the bowl outlook improved a bit. The Hawkeyes’ chance to reach a bowl game climbed to 91.4%, up roughly three percent. At the same time, their College Football Playoff odds slipped from 10.4% to 8.1%.
Here’s how the numbers look now:
Projected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
Chance to Win Out: 0.1%
Chance to Make a Bowl Game: 91.4%
Chance to Win the Big Ten: 1.0%
Chance to Make the College Football Playoff: 8.1%
Chance to Make the National Championship: 0.4%
Chance to Win the National Championship: 0.1%
It’s a blunt system, and that’s part of why this kind of result can feel harsher than it really is. The FPI strips away the rivalry energy and judges the numbers on their own.
That doesn’t mean Iowa should sound the alarm. The Hawkeyes were in this same neighborhood a year ago after a tight loss to Iowa State on a late field goal, and that didn’t end up defining their season.
For now, Iowa is 2-0 with a Power Four win in hand and no ugly loss on the résumé. Northern Iowa is up next before Big Ten play begins, and the Hawkeyes still have plenty in front of them.
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Tony Diaz has given Iowas passing game a different kind of jolt through the first two weeks, emerging as the Hawkeyes most productive receiver and helping widen an attack that has looked more varied than it has in recent seasons. With more options showing up in the passing game, Iowa is no longer leaning on just one route to move the ball, and Diaz has been at the center of that early expansion.
After the win, Diaz added a little more spice to the week by calling out Iowa State coach Jimmy Rogers for mistakenly referring to him as Nate Diaz. He was quick to acknowledge the Cyclones as a strong opponent, but the moment also underscored how a receiver making noise on the field can create a little edge off it too, especially when an emerging passing game is still trying to establish its identity. [Read more 🡒]
Michigans Iowa Test Just Became A Lot More Real
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Iowa arrives at 2-0 and ranked No. 18, with a new starting quarterback in Hank Brown and a running game that has already looked like the backbone of the offense behind Kamari Moulton. The setting only raises the stakes for both sides, since this is the kind of matchup that can turn into an early measuring stick for a Michigan team still settling in and an Iowa group trying to prove its formula travels against a bigger stage. [Read more 🡒]
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Bryce Hawthorne has also helped steady the defensive front, ranking second on the team with nine tackles while adding value against both the run and the pass rush. Hank Brown has been efficient enough to keep the offense moving, completing 66% of his throws and adding a rushing score, and that mix of small but meaningful contributions is why this start feels more sustainable than fluky. The bigger question now is whether Iowa can keep getting this kind of balance when the schedule starts asking for more. [Read more 🡒]