Halloween weekend brought another shake-up to ESPN’s FPI, and the biggest swings came with the kind of results that make the formula look both ruthless and a little bizarre. Iowa, USC, Washington, Boston College, UCF and Oklahoma all moved in very different directions after Week 9, with some teams getting a real boost and others taking a hard hit.
Iowa was one of the weekend’s clearest winners. After a rough loss to Minnesota, the Hawkeyes answered with a 30-0 shutout of Wisconsin.
That result likely sends the Badgers tumbling out of the AP top 25 and gets Iowa back in. The Hawkeyes are still carrying two losses, and their College Football Playoff chances sit at just 11%, but the jump puts them up to sixth in the Big Ten and points toward a strong bowl destination.
USC also made a big move, and this one came with a statement win. The Trojans beat Ohio State 30-18, a result that dropped the Buckeyes just one spot but lifted USC 10 places.
That’s a major swing for a team that had just been beaten 24-7 by Wisconsin and looked like it might be sliding. Instead, the Trojans get an open week before heading to Indiana, a team that suddenly looks vulnerable.
USC’s Playoff odds are only 18.7%, but games against Indiana and UCLA could still change that picture.
Washington didn’t produce the flashiest result, but the Huskies did enough to keep building. They edged Nebraska 17-10, and while they’re not in the Playoff conversation, the win pushed their chances of reaching six victories and bowl eligibility to 84.8%. The final stretch is still tricky, with Indiana coming to Seattle and Oregon waiting on the road to close the regular season.
Not every weekend brought good news. Boston College took the hardest fall among the ACC teams mentioned here, getting blasted by Duke 47-2.
That’s the kind of loss that leaves a mark. The Eagles are 4-4, but with Notre Dame and Miami still on the schedule, their odds of getting to six regular-season wins and a bowl are down to 11.4%.
UCF also had a rough Friday night. The Golden Knights were coming off an upset of No.
2 BYU, but Baylor snapped that momentum with a 41-9 win. Even so, the rest of the schedule gives UCF some breathing room.
None of the teams left on the slate has a winning record, and the Knights still have a 74.1% chance of getting to six wins.
Oklahoma’s loss may have been the most frustrating of the bunch in the SEC. The Sooners fell 42-25 at home to South Carolina, and FPI reacted by dropping them 11 spots.
South Carolina moved up one place, but Oklahoma’s path is getting tighter by the week. Three ranked teams remain on the schedule, along with road trips to Florida and Missouri, and even their 50.5% shot at six wins may be on the optimistic side.
In Other News...
Arizona Suddenly Has A Real AP Poll Problem
USCs upset of No. 2 Ohio State threw the top of the AP Poll into even more chaos, and it could have a ripple effect that reaches well beyond the Buckeyes. Oregon and Iowa both added quality wins against ranked opponents, giving each program a stronger case to climb back into the conversation when the next rankings come out.
For Iowa, the timing matters because a crowded middle of the poll is starting to shift, and the Hawkeyes have put themselves in position to benefit if voters decide to reshuffle the deck. Nothing is official yet, but with another wave of ranked matchups ahead, the next AP release could look a lot different for teams trying to move back in. [Read more 🡒]
Future Hawkeyes Are Making Iowa Fans Take Notice In The Playoffs
A handful of future Hawkeyes are turning November into a scouting showcase, and Iowa fans have reason to keep one eye on the high school playoff brackets. The latest round of games featured several commits and targets making their presence felt on both sides of the ball, with the article highlighting individual performances, defensive stops and the kind of playoff production that tends to travel well once players arrive in college.
The bigger picture is just as interesting as the box scores. Some of those teams moved on to the next round, while others saw their seasons end, leaving Iowa supporters with a fresh look at who is peaking at the right time and who still has more football ahead. For a fan base always eager to track the next wave of talent, the playoff run is offering an early glimpse of the players who could soon be wearing black and gold. [Read more 🡒]
Iowa Just Sent A Ranking Message With One Frustrating Catch
Iowas 30-0 win over Wisconsin did more than add another notch to the ledger. It pushed the Hawkeyes back into the top 25 and gave Kirk Ferentz plenty to like about the way his team handled the Badgers from start to finish, with the defense delivering a shutout and the offense doing enough to keep control of the game.
Even so, the performance came with the kind of familiar frustration that keeps Iowa from feeling fully settled. The Hawkeyes still have not found an opening-drive touchdown against a Power Four opponent this season, and ball security remains a concern after three fumbles against Wisconsin, even if they managed to recover one of them. [Read more 🡒]