Jaguars vs. Colts Preview: A Must-Win Showdown with Playoff Implications
The AFC South is heating up as the Jacksonville Jaguars head to Indianapolis to face the Colts in a pivotal Week 17 matchup. These two teams just saw each other three weeks ago, and the stakes have only gotten higher since then. Jacksonville is riding a red-hot streak and sitting comfortably atop the division at 11-4, while the Colts, now 8-7, are clinging to the slimmest of playoff hopes after dropping five straight.
Let’s break down what fans need to know heading into this clash between division rivals.
Trevor Lawrence is Locked In
Whatever switch Trevor Lawrence flipped in the second half of the season, it’s staying on. The third-year quarterback has been playing some of the best football of his career over the past month, and last week’s performance in Denver was just the latest example.
Lawrence went 23-of-36 for 279 yards and three touchdowns through the air, plus another score with his legs. Just as important: zero turnovers.
That makes him only the fourth player in NFL history to rack up 10 total touchdowns without a single turnover in a two-game span-joining elite company in Josh Allen (2024), Drew Brees (2019), and Patrick Mahomes (2018). Over the last six weeks, no quarterback has been more efficient.
Lawrence leads the league in yards per attempt (8.4), total touchdowns (19), and passer rating (108.7). He’s not just managing games-he’s dictating them.
Jaguars’ Streak Rewriting Team History
Jacksonville’s six-game win streak isn’t just impressive-it’s historic. It matches the franchise’s longest single-season win streak since 1999.
And it’s not just the wins-it’s how they’re winning. The Jaguars have averaged 34.2 points over this stretch, the most in any six-game span in team history.
They’ve also scored at least 25 points in eight straight games, another franchise record. This offense is humming, and it’s not relying on just one player. The protection is holding up, the run game is doing enough to keep defenses honest, and Lawrence is distributing the ball with confidence and precision.
Colts’ Offense Searching for Answers
On the other side, Indianapolis is reeling. The Colts are fresh off a 48-27 loss to the 49ers on Monday Night Football, and the defensive breakdowns were hard to ignore.
Brock Purdy carved them up for 295 yards and five touchdowns, and the Colts had extra time to prepare. That’s not the kind of performance you want to see when Trevor Lawrence is next on the schedule.
Offensively, the Colts haven’t been able to lean on their star running back the way they did earlier in the season. Jonathan Taylor, once in the MVP conversation, has been bottled up in recent weeks.
He’s been held under 100 rushing yards in five straight games, averaging just 76 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry in that stretch. Compare that to his first 10 games, where he averaged 113.9 yards and 6.0 yards per carry, and it’s clear something’s off-whether it’s the blocking, the game script, or just the wear and tear of a long season.
Playoff Picture: Colts Hanging by a Thread
Mathematically, the Colts aren’t out of the playoff race. But they’re going to need help-and a lot of it.
First, they need to beat the Jaguars this week and the Texans next week. On top of that, they need the Texans to lose to the Chargers this Saturday.
That’s a narrow path, but it’s still a path.
The bigger issue? The Colts haven’t won in over a month.
The Philip Rivers comeback has had its moments, but the team hasn’t been able to put it all together down the stretch. With just a 1.8% chance to make the postseason, according to projections, it’s do-or-die time in Indy.
What to Expect on Sunday
This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Jaguars are surging, confident, and clicking on both sides of the ball. The Colts are struggling to find their footing, especially on defense, where they just allowed nearly 50 points.
If Sauce Gardner is out again, Lawrence could be in for another big day. The Colts will need to play a near-flawless game to stay in it-and hope Taylor can rediscover his early-season form. But based on recent trends, Jacksonville looks like the more complete and dangerous team right now.
With the spread sitting under a touchdown, the Jaguars are in a strong position to cover. And given how both offenses have been trending-especially Jacksonville’s-don’t be surprised if this one hits the over.
Pick: Jaguars -6.5, Over 47.5
This one’s shaping up to be a defining moment in the AFC South race-and the Jaguars look ready to seize it.