AFC South Showdown: Jaguars, Colts, Texans Locked in a Three-Way Race With Five Games to Go
The AFC South wasn’t supposed to be this wild. Heading into the season, the Houston Texans were the trendy pick to take the division crown.
But the Indianapolis Colts came out firing, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have quietly kept pace with enough consistency to stay in the thick of the race. Now, after Houston’s gritty 20-16 win over the Colts on Sunday, we’ve got a three-team sprint to the finish.
Here’s where things stand: the Jaguars and Colts are tied atop the division at 8-4, with Jacksonville holding the tiebreaker for now. Houston, after starting the season 0-3, has clawed back to 7-5 and sits just one game behind. And with five games left - including some key head-to-head matchups - this division is anything but settled.
Let’s break down each team’s case to win the AFC South, looking at what’s working, what’s not, and what lies ahead.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4): The Defensive X-Factor
Why They Can Win It:
Jacksonville’s defense is built to make life miserable for opposing quarterbacks, and they’ll need every bit of that edge with two games left against the Colts. The return of linebacker Devin Lloyd has been a major boost.
Not only is he back healthy, but he’s making plays all over the field - and still leads the team with six interceptions. His presence gives the Jags a true difference-maker on the second level.
The schedule also sets up nicely. After the two showdowns with Indy, Jacksonville gets the Titans and Jets - both of whom have struggled to find consistency. If the Jaguars stay locked in, those could be two very winnable games that keep them in control of the division.
Why They Might Not:
Consistency has been the Achilles’ heel for Jacksonville all season. This is a team that beat the 49ers on the road and knocked off the Chiefs under the bright lights of Monday Night Football - only to follow that up by getting rolled by the Seahawks and Rams. That Jekyll-and-Hyde identity makes it hard to trust them week-to-week.
The run game, which was a strength early in the year, has cooled off. And without that balance, the offense has leaned too heavily on big plays and the defense bailing them out. If that trend continues, the margin for error shrinks fast.
Houston Texans (7-5): Defense Keeps Them Dangerous
Why They Can Win It:
Houston’s defense has been the backbone of their resurgence. Top to bottom, this unit is legit - they can pressure the quarterback, create turnovers, and make life tough in the red zone. That kind of defense travels, and it keeps them in every game, no matter who’s on the other side of the field.
Their remaining schedule is also favorable. They’ll see the Colts one more time, and the rest of the slate includes the Raiders, Chargers, and Cardinals - three teams that, on paper, Houston matches up well against. If they take care of business, they’ll be right there at the finish line.
Why They Might Not:
The offense remains a major concern. It’s been a rough watch all season, and the struggles start up front.
The offensive line has been inconsistent at best and a liability at worst - and that’s made life tough for a running game that’s been missing Joe Mixon all year. Without a reliable ground game or consistent protection, the Texans have had to grind out every yard.
That kind of offensive inefficiency puts a lot of pressure on the defense to be nearly perfect. And in a tight divisional race, that’s a dangerous way to live.
Indianapolis Colts (8-4): Battle-Tested and Waiting on Reinforcements
Why They Can Win It:
The Colts know their divisional rivals well, and that familiarity matters in December. They’ll get another crack at both Jacksonville and Houston, and if they can split or sweep those matchups, they’ll be in great shape.
There’s also hope that defensive tackle DeForest Buckner will be back soon. When healthy, he’s a game-wrecker - a disruptive force who can shut down the run and collapse the pocket. His return would elevate a defense that’s already been solid and give them a much-needed edge in the trenches.
Why They Might Not:
The schedule isn’t doing them any favors. Indianapolis still has to face the Seahawks and 49ers - two playoff-caliber teams that won’t be mailing it in down the stretch. Those are physical, high-stakes games that could wear down a roster already dealing with injuries.
And then there’s the quarterback situation. Daniel Jones’ health remains a question mark, and his limited mobility has clearly affected the offense.
When he’s not able to move and extend plays, the playbook shrinks, and the Colts become easier to defend. If he can’t get back to his earlier form, it could cap this team’s ceiling.
The Final Stretch: Who Takes the AFC South?
Three teams. Five games. One division title up for grabs.
The Jaguars have the inside track, but their inconsistency could open the door. The Colts are hanging tough, but their path is the most treacherous. And the Texans, riding a top-tier defense, are lurking - just one game back and full of belief.
We’ve seen this division flip on its head already this season. Don’t be surprised if it happens again.
The only thing we know for sure? The AFC South race is going down to the wire - and it’s going to be a fun one to watch.