Josh Downs is starting to show up on breakout lists for 2026, and it’s easy to see why. The Colts receiver has been a steady slot weapon through his first three seasons, finishing each year with between 58 and 72 catches and between 566 and 803 yards. Even a down 2025, when he posted the fewest targets, receptions and yards of his career, hasn’t dimmed the belief that bigger numbers could be coming.
There are real reasons for that optimism. Michael Pittman, Jr., who was the Colts’ most-targeted receiver during Downs’ time in Indianapolis, is gone and hasn’t been replaced by anyone nearly as productive.
That should open up more chances for Downs to make plays. And with 2026 coming in the final year of his rookie deal, there’s at least the usual contract-year buzz hanging around him, even if that’s not something anyone can bank on.
Still, if Downs is going to move from solid to truly dangerous, the key is simple: he has to get better in one very important area, or maybe two depending on how you look at it. The role may shift, but the numbers tell the story.
He can have a decent season without making the leap people are talking about. He cannot do that if his efficiency stays stuck where it was last year.
Because of his size, Downs was always destined for the slot, and he’s handled that job well enough. He was also Daniel Jones’ preferred target when the quarterback was under pressure, which says plenty about the trust he’s earned.
The dip in his overall production last season shouldn’t be overblown, either. Tyler Warren took up a lot of room in the offense, and with Pittman out, there should be more opportunities for Downs, Warren and Alec Pierce this season.
But the number that matters most is yards-per-target. If Downs is ever going to be more than a “pretty good” receiver, that figure has to climb.
That stat matters because it captures both efficiency and big-play ability. Alec Pierce has been a standout in that department, and his work on deeper routes helps explain why his catch rate is lower than receivers who live on shorter throws. Even so, on a per-target basis, he’s been excellent.
Downs is a different kind of receiver. As a slot player, he should naturally catch more passes than Pierce, but he won’t pile up the same kind of yardage. Even so, good slot receivers usually land around eight yards per target.
To check that idea, I asked AI to identify the best slot receivers in the NFL. It returned eight names, including Downs, along with players such as Amon-Ra St.
Brown and Cooper Kupp. Leaving Downs aside, the top yards-per-target mark belonged to Dallas’ CeeDee Lamb at 9.2, while Tampa’s Chris Godwin was lowest at 7.1.
The average came out to exactly 8.0.
That average did not include Green Bay’s Jayden Reed, who missed much of 2025. If his limited 2025 production were used, the number would rise. If his 2024 season were used, when he posted 11.4 yards per target, it would rise again.
Eight yards per target is a fair benchmark. Downs was there as a rookie.
Since then, he’s slipped badly. His 2025 mark was 6.4, and that’s not enough if he wants to be mentioned with the league’s best.
The drop isn’t really about volume. His catch rate has fallen a bit over his three seasons, but not by much.
That leaves two likely explanations: he’s running shorter routes, or he’s doing less damage after the catch. The second one is the problem.
Downs averaged just 2.5 yards after the catch in 2025, after sitting at 5.5 in each of his first two seasons.
That’s a striking decline for a player whose yards-after-catch ability was one of his best traits coming out of college. Last season, only reserve tight ends Drew Ogletree and Will Mallory, who combined for five catches, were less effective after the catch among Colts pass catchers.
Whether that points to a loss of quickness or something in the way the offense is being built around him is hard to say from the outside. But the numbers to watch are clear.
If Downs wants 2026 to be the season he breaks through, yards-per-target and yards-after-catch are the two stats that will tell the story. If they stay where they were, he’ll still be useful.
He just won’t be the breakout everyone’s waiting for.
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