With just five weeks left in the NFL regular season, the race for AP Coach of the Year is heating up - and a few names are starting to pull away from the pack. At the top of the odds board sits Mike Vrabel, who’s leading a resurgent Patriots team that looks nothing like the one we saw over the past couple of years.
Right behind him? A pair of first-year head coaches who’ve injected new life into their franchises.
Let’s break down where things stand and who’s making the strongest case as we enter the home stretch.
Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots (-235)
When Vrabel took over in New England, expectations were cautiously optimistic - but few saw this kind of turnaround coming. The Patriots are 11-2 after a Monday night win over the Giants, and they’ve already locked in their first winning season since 2021. That’s not just a step forward - that’s a leap.
Sure, the schedule hasn’t been a murderer’s row, but road wins over the Bills and Bucs - both playoff-caliber teams - are nothing to sneeze at. Add in a league-best +110 point differential in the AFC, and you’ve got a team that’s not just winning, but winning convincingly.
The Patriots still have some big tests ahead, including a rematch with Buffalo and a road trip to face Baltimore. But with the Jets and Dolphins closing out the slate, the path to an AFC East crown looks clear. Vrabel’s blend of discipline, defensive identity, and just enough offensive punch has New England back in the mix - and him at the front of the Coach of the Year race.
Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears (+250)
Johnson’s debut season in Chicago has been one of the league’s most surprising storylines. The Bears are 9-3 and currently in the driver’s seat for the NFC’s top seed. That alone puts Johnson firmly in the conversation.
Now, if you dig into the numbers, there are a few red flags. The Bears have only outscored opponents by six points total.
Six of their wins came by less than a touchdown. And they’ve needed some late-game magic to get past teams like the Raiders, Commanders, Bengals, and Giants - not exactly a murderer’s row.
But here’s the thing: Johnson has this team believing. The Bears are playing with swagger, and they’ve embraced their rookie head coach’s bold, sometimes shirtless, leadership style.
The final stretch won’t be easy - four of their last five games are against winning teams, and they’ll see the Packers twice in less than two weeks. But if Chicago keeps stacking wins, especially against stronger competition, Johnson could very well take home the hardware.
Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks (+650)
Seattle came into the season with modest expectations - a 6.5-win total, to be exact. They passed that mark by Week 10. Since starting 4-5 under first-year head coach Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks have gone on a 15-5 run, and they’re doing it with a throwback formula: defense and discipline.
The Seahawks boast the best point differential in the NFL at +133 and rank third in defensive EPA per play. That’s a nod to Macdonald’s defensive pedigree, and it’s showing up on the field. Offensively, the connection between Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has blossomed into one of the league’s most effective - and unexpected - duos.
Seattle still has some work to do, with games remaining against the Colts, Rams, and 49ers. But two of those are at home, and if they can leapfrog the Rams to take the NFC West, Macdonald’s name will be tough to ignore.
Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys (+1800)
The Cowboys can score - that much is clear. They’re averaging 29.3 points per game, second only to the Colts. But for much of the season, their defense was a liability, especially after the team made the bold move to trade away Micah Parsons.
Lately, though, things are tightening up. Over the last three games - all wins - Dallas has allowed just 21.7 points per contest, a massive improvement from the 30.8 they were giving up during their 3-5-1 start.
Schottenheimer’s offense is humming, and if the defense continues to stabilize, the Cowboys could be a late-season riser. A Thursday night showdown with the Lions looms large - a strong showing there could push Schottenheimer further up the Coach of the Year ladder.
Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers (+2500)
Canales’ odds have slipped since the preseason, but his Panthers are quietly exceeding expectations. Sunday’s upset over the Rams pushed them past their projected win total of 6.5, and they’re still in the thick of the NFC South race - just a half-game behind the Bucs with two head-to-head matchups still on the calendar.
The numbers don’t exactly scream “dominant.” Carolina ranks 22nd in offensive EPA per play and 25th on defense. But they’re finding ways to win, and if Canales can guide this team to its first playoff appearance since 2017, voters will have to take a serious look.
Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts (+2500)
Steichen was the early favorite after a scorching 7-1 start. But things have cooled off - the Colts have dropped three of their last four, with their lone win coming in overtime against the Falcons.
The road ahead is brutal: two games against the Jaguars, a trip to Seattle, a home date with the 49ers, and a season finale in Houston. If Steichen can navigate that gauntlet and sneak into the postseason, he’ll have more than earned his spot in the Coach of the Year conversation. But if the slide continues, those early-season tickets might end up in the shredder.
Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars (+2500)
Coen’s stock has dipped since the Jaguars’ hot start, but don’t count him out just yet. Jacksonville has won four of its last five, and while most of those wins came against struggling teams, they’ve done what good teams are supposed to do - handle their business.
A critical matchup with the Colts is up next, and it could be a make-or-break moment for both coaches in this race. They’ll meet again later in December, and with a road trip to Denver also on the schedule, Coen still has a chance to make a late push.
The Bottom Line
Vrabel has the inside track right now, and it’s hard to argue against what he’s done in New England. But with five weeks to go, there’s still plenty of time for movement.
Johnson and Macdonald are right there, and a strong finish from any of the longshots - especially in a tightly packed playoff race - could shake things up. Buckle up.
Coach of the Year is far from settled.