The Colts have spent the early part of the season sorting through issues in their passing game, but one thing has become clear: when the offense needs a clean answer, it keeps coming back to Josh Downs.
With Alec Pierce on Injured Reserve and Tyler Warren adjusting to different ways to win, Indianapolis has had to patch together its pass-catching plans. Downs, though, has been the steady hand through it all.
He has long been the Colts’ dependable option, especially on third down, where his target share and usage over the past three seasons have stacked up with some of the NFL’s best receivers. In the past, that meant a narrower job description - work early downs, then become the isolation target when the money downs arrived.
That role has expanded over the last two weeks, and Downs has handled it with ease. Against the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans, he was targeted 20 times and caught 12 passes for 149 yards. That production has pushed his yards per catch to its highest level since he joined the Colts, and it has also brought more chunk plays into an offense that needed them.
The bigger leap has come in the areas where Downs was already a trusted weapon. Last season, he ranked 17th in target share and 14th in total Expected Points Added (EPA) gained when targeted on third down.
This year, he has climbed to ninth in target share and fifth in total EPA gained in those situations. Indianapolis is feeding him even more when the chains are on the line, and the results have followed.
He has also become a real answer for one of the Colts’ lingering problems: handling the blitz. Daniel Jones was outside the top 10 in EPA per play last season in only one area, and it was against the blitz, where he dropped to around 15th in the league. That issue showed up right away in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens, when Jones completed just one of five throws for six yards against the blitz in that loss.
The last two games have told a different story. Jones has gone 19 of 23 for 189 yards and a touchdown against the blitz over that stretch, and Downs has been a big part of why. In hindsight, the fix looks almost too obvious: put the ball where the best receiver is and trust him to shake free.
For Downs, it has been a strong contract-year start, and the Colts’ offense is finally leaning into what he has always been. He has been the same reliable player he has always been - only now, the offense is built around that reliability more naturally. If Indianapolis wants to keep moving the ball this way, Downs probably needs to stay in the 10-plus target range each week.
Sometimes the simplest answer is the right one. For the Colts, that answer is Josh Downs.
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The Colts are 1-2, and the schedule ahead figures to keep testing them in different ways, from offenses built on the pass to groups that lean on a more varied attack. Adebawores development, and the likelihood that his role keeps growing, gives Indianapolis a useful piece at exactly the right moment. If he keeps affecting quarterbacks the way he did last week, the Colts may have found a defensive spark they can lean on. [Read more 🡒]