The AFC South looks like one of those divisions where every week could swing the whole thing, but the gap at the top still feels pretty clear. Houston and Jacksonville sit in the best shape on paper, while Indianapolis is trying to force its way back into the conversation after last year’s collapse.
The Colts’ path starts with a simple question: can Daniel Jones hold up and keep the offense moving? Indianapolis hasn’t won the AFC South since 2014, and it has reached 10 wins just once since then, in 2018.
Last season looked like a breakthrough when the Colts opened 8-2, but that run fell apart fast. Two one-score losses in Weeks 12 and 13 were followed by Jones tearing his Achilles in Week 14, and the season ended at 8-9.
Even with Jones back, the betting market isn’t treating Indianapolis like the favorite. The Colts are sitting at +380 at DraftKings, which works out to roughly a 20 percent implied chance to win the division. In the projection model, they come in behind both Houston and Jacksonville, with 8.3 wins, a 41.3 percent shot at the playoffs, a 23.7 percent chance to win the division, and a 1.2 percent chance to win the Super Bowl.
Houston leads the way in the projections at 9.3 wins, with a 55.0 percent playoff chance, a 36.4 percent chance to win the AFC South, and a 2.7 percent Super Bowl shot. Jacksonville is right there with 9.1 wins, a 52.3 percent playoff chance, a 32.9 percent division chance, and a 1.8 percent Super Bowl probability. Tennessee trails at 5.8 wins, 15.3 percent to make the playoffs, 7.0 percent to win the division, and 0.3 percent to win it all.
The Texans still have the kind of defense that keeps the floor high, but the offense has a question mark attached to it now that wide receiver Jayden Higgins is out for the season with a torn ACL. Houston’s offensive line has already held back production in recent seasons, so there’s real doubt about how much of a leap the offense can make with limited receiving options.
Jacksonville, though, looks built a little differently. The Jaguars have what looks like a similarly sturdy floor, but in a more balanced way.
The offense is the part that stands out, especially after trading for Jakobi Meyers last year, and it’s viewed as a top-10 unit. The defense isn’t quite Houston’s level, but it is still pretty stout.
That’s why the race feels most believable between the Texans and Jaguars, with the Colts trying to break through from the next tier. Indianapolis has reasons for optimism.
Shane Steichen still has believers, and Jones returning gives the offense a chance to regain some of last season’s spark. But there are real questions, too.
If Jones needs time to get going, or if his Year 7 breakout turns out to be more of an outlier than a new baseline, the Colts could struggle to keep pace.
The defense has a few pieces worth trusting, including DeForest Buckner and Laiatu Latu up front and Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward at cornerback. But beyond those names, the unit is loaded with unproven players and uncertainty.
So yes, the AFC South is tight. But the tightest part of it appears to be at the top, between Houston and Jacksonville. The Colts can absolutely make a case to join them, but right now they still look like the third team in the race.
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