The Jacksonville Jaguars have been one of the NFL’s more unpredictable teams this season - a squad capable of beating contenders like the 49ers on the road, yet also getting blown out overseas by the Rams. But right now, they’re trending in the right direction.
Winners of three straight, the Jags have a chance to take firm control of the AFC South when they host the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday. And while nothing’s clinched yet, a win here would be a major step toward securing a playoff spot.
To get there, though, the Jaguars will need to check a few critical boxes. Let’s break down what needs to go right for Jacksonville to keep the momentum rolling.
1. Trevor Lawrence Needs to Protect the Football
Trevor Lawrence has had a rollercoaster of a season - flashes of brilliance, stretches of inconsistency, and a handful of throws he’d probably like to take back. That’s life with a young quarterback still growing into his role as a franchise cornerstone. But this week, against a Colts defense that thrives on takeaways, ball security has to be the top priority.
Indianapolis is opportunistic. They disguise coverages, bait quarterbacks into mistakes, and capitalize when the ball is up for grabs.
Lawrence doesn’t need to be a hero on every play. He just needs to make the right reads, take what the defense gives him, and avoid the kind of forced throws that have led to trouble in the past.
If he plays within himself, the Jaguars’ offense is more than capable of putting up points - and keeping the Colts’ defense from flipping the field.
2. Win the Battle Up Front
After a disappointing performance against Houston earlier in the season, Jaguars head coach Liam Coen publicly challenged his defensive front. They’ve responded - and then some. Over the last three games, Jacksonville’s defensive line has racked up 12 sacks, and they’ve looked like a completely different unit.
This week, they’ll face a Colts offensive line that’s been shaky, and that’s where Josh Hines-Allen and the rest of the Jaguars’ pass rush can take over. The key will be collapsing the pocket around Daniel Jones, who’s still dealing with a lower leg injury that’s limited his mobility.
Jones isn’t moving like he was earlier in the year, and if the Jags can force him to stay in the pocket, that plays right into their hands. Expect Jacksonville to dial up the pressure early and often - if they control the trenches, they control the game.
3. Hit on Explosive Plays in the Passing Game
Last week against Tennessee, Jacksonville’s passing attack found its rhythm with several big plays downfield. That’s something they’ll look to replicate this Sunday - and the matchup might just allow it.
With Sauce Gardner out and Mooney Ward unable to cover everyone, there should be opportunities for the Jags’ receivers to get loose. Jakobi Meyers is due for a bounce-back performance, and tight end Brenton Strange could be a sneaky X-factor in this one.
Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is known for his aggressive, creative schemes - blitzes from all angles, disguised coverages, the works. But that aggressiveness can backfire if the offense catches defenders out of position.
If Lawrence can identify those windows and hit his playmakers in stride, the Jaguars could be in for another explosive day through the air.
This is a pivotal moment for Liam Coen and his team. The Jaguars are in the driver’s seat, but the road to the playoffs is never smooth - especially in the AFC.
Sunday’s game isn’t just about beating the Colts. It’s about proving that this team is ready to take the next step, to handle the pressure, and to play their best football when it matters most.
We’ll find out soon enough whether Jacksonville rises to the occasion - or lets the moment slip away.