Daniel Jones is headed into 2026 with a fresh contract, a clean runway to Week 1 and a Colts team still betting big on what he can do under Shane Steichen. But Pro Football Focus isn’t nearly as convinced.
In its pre-training camp quarterback rankings, PFF slotted Jones 23rd, a lower view than Indianapolis would like after handing him a new two-year, $88 million deal this offseason. The Colts are clearly banking on the version of Jones they saw before last year’s season-ending Achilles injury, not the one who limped to the finish line.
And for a while, that version looked very real.
Through the first eight weeks of the 2025 season, PFF said Jones was a “legitimate MVP candidate” while running the league’s most efficient offense. Indianapolis won seven of eight games during that stretch, and Jones was piling up production at a high level, ranking fourth in the NFL in yards per pass attempt at 8.5 while throwing 13 touchdowns against three interceptions.
Then the wheels came off. PFF noted that Jones posted just a 53.2 passing grade over his final five appearances before tearing his Achilles in Week 14, and ball security became a major issue. He led the NFL with 11 turnover-worthy plays in that span.
That downturn, along with the injury itself, is why PFF is cautious. Dalton Wasserman and Max Chadwick called the new deal a “risky proposition” because of Jones’ “lack of arm strength and recent injury.”
Jones still finished his first season in Indianapolis with 3,101 yards and 19 touchdowns, and he said during OTAs that he would “absolutely” be ready for the opener despite rupturing his Achilles. There are still hurdles in front of him, but the Colts believe he can get back to the level he showed before the injury.
Defenses had started to adjust to the Colts’ offense even before Jones went down, but he and Steichen never got the chance to answer back. PFF’s ranking reflects both that late-season slide and Jones’ injury history over the first seven years of his career. Even so, he’s proven he can work in Steichen’s system, and Indianapolis has built a solid enough roster around him to make the bet worth taking.
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