Alec Pierce is playing like a man who knows what’s at stake-and the numbers back it up.
The Colts wide receiver is in the midst of a breakout 2025 campaign, and he’s doing it at the perfect time: a contract year. Once viewed as a situational deep threat, Pierce has evolved into a legitimate WR1 candidate, and the league is taking notice. According to PFF, he’s one of the top 15 underrated 2026 free agents poised to cash in, and based on his production this season, it’s easy to see why.
Let’s start with the metrics. Among wideouts with at least 55 targets, Pierce ranks 13th in both PFF receiving grade (80.3) and yards per route run (2.15).
He’s also 20th in passer rating when targeted (105.1), showing he’s not just getting open-he’s making the most of his opportunities. And when it comes to contested catches, Pierce has been elite.
Since 2023, his 90.7 receiving grade on contested targets ranks 14th among receivers with 60 or more such attempts. That’s not just good-it’s game-changing.
At just 25 years old, Pierce is adding more polish to his game. His releases are sharper, his route running more refined.
He’s still the vertical threat he was drafted to be, but now he’s showing the kind of versatility that makes offensive coordinators salivate and defensive backs lose sleep. That development could push his market value north of $22 million per year in free agency-WR1 money, and deservedly so.
The Colts took Pierce in the second round of the 2022 draft, banking on his speed and leaping ability to stretch defenses. Three years later, they’re seeing the full payoff.
Through 10 games (nine starts) this season, Pierce has 33 catches for 689 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a gaudy 20.9 yards per reception-tops in the league among qualifying receivers.
He’s not just leading the Colts in receiving yards; he’s setting the tone for their entire offense.
And that offense? It’s been one of the league’s surprises this year.
While several players have stepped up, Pierce has been a major catalyst. He’s no longer just a complementary piece-he’s become a focal point.
His ability to stretch the field vertically, high-point the football, and win in traffic gives the Colts a true outside weapon. Add in his willingness to block on the perimeter and his relentless effort on every snap, and you’ve got the kind of player coaches love to build around.
It’s worth noting that earlier this year, there was some buzz that Pierce could be on the trade block or potentially expendable heading into free agency-especially with second-year wideout AD Mitchell waiting in the wings. But that narrative flipped quickly.
Mitchell was dealt to the Jets in the Sauce Gardner trade, and Pierce has since seized the moment. He’s not just playing for a new contract-he’s playing like a franchise cornerstone.
What’s especially impressive is how Pierce has expanded his route tree. He’s no longer just a “go” route specialist.
He’s making plays across the field, showing nuance in his footwork and an improved feel for finding soft spots in coverage. That’s a sign of a receiver who’s still ascending.
And for the Colts, who’ve watched him grow from a raw vertical threat into a complete receiver, the time to act might be now.
Spotrac currently projects Pierce’s next deal at four years, $62.9 million (roughly $15.7 million annually). But if his current trajectory holds, that figure could climb quickly. The Colts may want to get ahead of the market and lock him up before the bidding war begins.
Of course, there are other financial considerations in play. Quarterback Daniel Jones is also set to hit free agency in 2026, and if the Colts want to keep their offensive core intact, they’ll need to make some tough cap decisions.
But Pierce is making a compelling case to be one of the pillars of that future-because right now, he’s not just helping the Colts win. He’s helping redefine what their offense can be.