The Colts got one giant play out of Daniel Jones and not nearly enough else.
That was the theme in Week 9, where Indianapolis leaned on the run, got a balanced early-down approach and still watched the passing game sputter for long stretches. The offense managed only 64 yards in the first half, and Jones’ day was defined by a few flashes buried under a pile of inefficient snaps, negative plays and another interception.
Jones wasn’t under heavy siege, either. He had time to work, holding the ball longer than most quarterbacks while facing relatively little pressure.
In theory, that should have opened up the field. In practice, the results stayed thin.
His completions produced limited yardage, and even with decent yards after the catch helping the cause, the overall downfield output never really took off.
The numbers tell the story. Jones finished with a completion rate that lagged expectations, and the combination of missed throws and short gains left his yards per attempt near the bottom of the league again.
Two drops didn’t help. Neither did the six plays he abandoned, including two scrambles, two throwaways and two sacks.
Even with that, his abandoned-attempt rate still landed below league average, which kept the damage from getting even worse.
The Colts also struggled to turn passing chances into chain-moving plays. They had trouble generating first downs through the air and produced only one touchdown.
The interception sealed the loss. Jones finished with an ugly -0.17 EPA per play, once again sitting near the bottom of the league in overall efficiency.
The biggest swing came on the 55-yard touchdown pass to Ashton Dulin, a play that gave the Colts their one massive bright spot. A 40-yard pass interference penalty also added a meaningful boost.
But those moments were swallowed by the rest of the afternoon, including a 10-yard sack in the first half that cost Indianapolis 2.1 EPA and a game-ending interception that went for -2.5 EPA. Jones generated positive EPA on just 40% of his plays.
His recent trend line isn’t doing him any favors, either. The success rate ticked up a bit, but the first-down rate dropped for the fourth straight week and now sits at 23.1%. Net yards per play climbed for a second consecutive week to 5.4, and EPA per play bounced back from last week’s disaster, but the overall rolling averages still sit well below league average.
The passing depth chart was just as uneven. Jones had a few short bursts of production, but he never sustained it.
The touchdown and the pass interference were the clear outliers. He didn’t complete a single pass beyond 14 air yards, and his final four throws ended with three incompletions and an interception.
After two weeks of unusually short targets, Jones’ average target depth moved back to 8.2 yards. Still, his completed passes averaged only 4.5 yards downfield. That was better than last week’s 3.1, but it remained in the bottom third of the league.
As for the targets, Ashton Dulin led the way with 55 receiving yards, all of them after the catch on his lone reception, which went for a touchdown. Tyler Warren added 44 yards, while Keenan Allen posted 25 completed air yards but only one yard after the catch. Allen and Josh Downs continue to pace the Colts in receiving production, with Downs holding a slight edge in total yards, though Warren is still a distant third.
Dulin was the only real spark on one catch. Everyone else finished below league average, with Allen and Jonathan Taylor standing out for poor value despite combining for 13 targets. Even Warren and Downs, while a little better, produced essentially zero EPA per target.
On accuracy, Jones completed 21 of 31 adjusted attempts after removing drops and throwaways, good for a 68% adjusted completion rate and -6% CPOE. That marked a drop from last week’s +2% CPOE.
For the season, his completion rate remains below league average at nearly every depth, especially on throws more than 20 yards downfield. The one area that still works is the short game: screen passes and checkdowns behind the line, where he’s hitting 87%.
He also took longer to get rid of the ball. Jones averaged 2.87 seconds to throw, up from 2.44 last week, while taking one fewer sack. For the season, his time to throw is still slightly quicker than expected for the depth of his targets, sitting just below the league trend line.
And the final answer on where the success came from? Behind the line of scrimmage. That, more than anything else, summed up the day.
In Other News...
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The Colts finally got a little relief in the secondary this week, with defensive backs Justin Walley and A.J. Haulcy both returning to full participation in practice. For a defense that has been managing a long injury list, getting two defensive backs back on the field at least gives Indianapolis a better chance to sort through its coverage options before a matchup that could demand it.
There is still plenty for the Colts to monitor, though, with several players limited or sidelined and edge defender Arden Key just beginning his 21-day practice window after a hamstring injury. Miami has its own availability issues heading into the game, including starter Aaron Brewer being ruled out and Chris Bell also on the injury report, so both teams are walking into this one with some uncertainty still hanging over the roster. [Read more 🡒]
Colts Fans Will Want To See Why San Francisco Pivoted Away
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Keenan Allens arrival adds another layer to the picture, especially after Shanahan had previously floated him as a trade target while the 49ers were initially linked to Josh Downs. For Indianapolis, it is a reminder of how quickly the market can shift when a contender decides it wants a proven veteran instead of waiting on a different fit. The Colts may not control what San Francisco does next, but they will certainly notice how the 49ers chose to pivot. [Read more 🡒]
Colts Suddenly Have A New Fantasy Name Fans Should Notice
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For Colts fans, the name worth noticing is Alec Pierce, who fits neatly into that kind of environment. The analysis around this weeks player pool points to favorable defensive vulnerabilities and the chance for expanded involvement, which is exactly the sort of setup that can turn a secondary option into a useful fantasy play. It is not a glamorous storyline, but in a week defined by absences and shifting target shares, Pierce has become the kind of receiver DFS players tend to circle when they are hunting for a little edge. [Read more 🡒]