The Indianapolis Colts spent the offseason making a bet they now have to live with, and it centers on Alec Pierce.
Daniel Jones’ two-year deal and Pierce’s four-year contract both came with serious money attached, but Pierce’s is the one that could linger the longest if it doesn’t work out. Jones can still be viewed through the lens of a short-term swing. Pierce, though, was paid like a player the Colts believe can become something bigger than what he has been so far.
That’s the gamble: Indianapolis is banking on Pierce evolving from one of the league’s most dangerous downfield threats into a far more complete receiver. He has already shown he can win deep, especially on the kind of plays where he uses his size and timing to box out defenders.
No one does that better. Last season, he added a few more crossing routes to the mix, but the vertical shot remained his calling card.
The problem is that the Colts are paying for more than highlight plays now. Pierce has to become a much bigger part of the offense in terms of volume, even if that means his yards per catch comes down.
He is the clear WR1 in Indianapolis now, and the production has to match the label. He has never caught 50 passes in a season, and by 2026 and beyond, that number needs to jump to 80 or more.
That also puts pressure on Shane Steichen to use him differently. The Colts need Pierce to be threatening in ways that go beyond post routes and deep balls.
He has to function more like a possession receiver at times, the role Michael Pittman Jr. filled before being traded. Pittman may have lost some explosiveness over the years, but he was still the receiver Steichen leaned on most because he fit the offense and could grind out the tough first downs.
Pierce has not yet proven he can do that consistently.
There is still a version of this where the contract looks smart. Pierce could come back from offseason ankle surgery - the injury has been downplayed by both the player and the team - and deliver the kind of leap the Colts are hoping for. He could post 80 catches and 1,500 yards in 2026 and beyond if he expands his route tree and becomes more than just a deep-ball specialist.
But if that growth never comes, Indianapolis has very little wiggle room. Pierce is guaranteed $30 million in the second year of the deal, and the financial pressure eases only by 2028. By then, the Colts could be stuck with a wide receiver paid like a star without the full skill set to justify it.
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