The Colts can point to last season’s 8-2 start with Daniel Jones all they want, but the AFC South picture is leaning hard away from Indianapolis heading into next year.
That’s the read from ESPN’s Stephen Holder, and he’s not alone. In a recent round of division predictions, the Colts got zero votes to win the AFC South, just like the Titans.
The Texans drew three of the four picks, with the Jaguars getting the other. No one from that group sees an upset coming from Indianapolis.
It’s not hard to see why. The Jaguars won the division last season, and the Texans were the AFC South team that actually won a playoff game.
The Colts, meanwhile, never got there. And even with Jones back and healthy, the path to the top looks cramped.
Holder didn’t sugarcoat it. “If you're finding it difficult to decide how to view this team, that's nothing new,” Holder writes.
“Take last season, for example, when the Colts' season was something of an identity crisis. They were, perhaps, the hottest team in the NFL for the first half of the season, jumping out to an 8-2 start heading into their Week 11 bye.
Along the way, their league-leading offense was setting records on a seemingly weekly basis.
“This season, ownership is looking for clarity on which team this really is. What happens next will determine the future of the team's brass and, most likely, some key players.”
That uncertainty is part of what makes Indianapolis such a tough team to peg. Last season’s surge vanished after Jones suffered a season-ending injury, and the Colts dropped every game after that. Now they’re trying to recapture something close to that early rhythm, but the division may not cooperate.
The biggest problem is simple: the Texans and Jaguars both look capable of being better, and if that happens, the Colts may be boxed out before the race even tightens. Holder says it shouldn’t be a shock if Indianapolis falls short of the division crown, and the nightmare scenario is easy to see.
Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud having big years would be enough to make life miserable for the Colts. If that happens while Jacksonville and Houston remain stronger teams overall, the AFC South could turn into a two-team fight - and Indianapolis would be watching from the outside.
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