For a long stretch, the AFC South was the kind of division other teams looked down on. The Colts, meanwhile, were usually the bully in the room, with Peyton Manning carrying Indianapolis to seven of the franchise’s nine divisional titles.
That world is gone now. Indianapolis hasn’t finished first in the AFC South since 2014, and Daniel Jones now gets the chance to try to change that in the first season of the post-Andrew Luck era.
The problem is that the path back to the top isn’t nearly as smooth as it used to be. The Colts have a good roster, but the division around them has hardened, and a Week 1 power ranking puts them third.
At the bottom sit the Tennessee Titans, the lone team in the division without any realistic playoff hopes. They did make changes this offseason, and Robert Saleh could help the defense, but this still feels like a team that’s a few years away.
They may still be searching for their franchise quarterback, even with Jeffery Simmons anchoring the defensive tackle spot and an offensive line that should be better. Beyond that, they need Cam Ward and Carnell Tate to hit, and the early signs apparently aren’t promising.
If this team is better in 2026, that’s one thing. But losing to Tennessee would be impossible to justify, especially with the Titans looking capable of landing near the top of the 2027 NFL Draft.
Indianapolis comes in at No. 3, which will not sit well with Colts fans, but it doesn’t mean the roster is flimsy. It means the AFC South has become more competitive, with as many as three teams looking playoff-worthy.
On paper, the Colts can stack up with anybody in the division, and they already showed that last season. Still, the warning signs are real.
Depth behind the starters is thin in a lot of places, and quarterback is a particular concern. The questions keep piling up from there: can the pass rush take a step forward, can the cornerbacks stay healthy, can DeForest Buckner hold up?
The offense might still be the best in the South, but the durability issues and lack of proven depth are enough to keep Indianapolis behind two teams.
Ahead of them are the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 2.
Trevor Lawrence remains the biggest variable in the division, because nobody quite knows which version of him will show up from week to week. That uncertainty caps the Jaguars’ ceiling, even with some useful weapons and a solid coach in place.
Brian Thomas Jr. is coming off a disappointing 2025 and should have plenty of motivation to respond, while Parker Washington could be a real No. 1 target. Travis Hunter won’t be heavily involved on offense, but he’s still a player worth tracking.
Defensively, Josh Hines-Allen remains one of the most underrated pass-rushers around, and Hunter should see his cornerback role expand.
At No. 1 are the Houston Texans, and the difference between them and Indianapolis isn’t huge. The Texans’ offense still doesn’t look like it can match the Colts’ firepower, but their defense is another story entirely.
DeMeco Ryans has built a unit that plays with a hard edge, and the group doesn’t need to get fancy to wreck games. Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, Azeez Al-Shair, Derek Stingley Jr., and the rest can simply line up and punish opponents.
Houston did lose more playmakers on offense, which leaves the wide receiver group looking shaky outside of Nico Collins. The run game also doesn’t project as much of a threat with the aging David Montgomery, and C.J.
Stroud still has to prove he’s more than a one-year wonder.
In Other News...
Colts Rookie Class Is Already Creating A Few Tough Early Decisions
The Colts rookie class has already forced its way into the early roster conversation, and not just because all eight of their 2026 draft picks plus one undrafted free agent made the 53-man roster. For a team trying to build reliable depth around a few established pieces, that kind of retention says a lot about both the front offices evaluation and how quickly the rookies have made themselves part of the picture.
The trick now is figuring out where everyone fits once the season gets rolling. Linebackers CJ Allen and Bryce Boettcher are expected to open as backups, but their rotational roles are still unsettled, while safety A.J. Haulcys injury situation could change the plan at the back end of the defense. On offense, Seth McGowan has already done enough to lock down the direct backup job behind Jonathan Taylor, which leaves Indianapolis with one of those good problems every team wants early in the year, even if the answers are still coming into focus. [Read more 🡒]
Colts Suddenly Have A Week 1 Boost Baltimore Had To Notice
Alec Pierces recovery has become one of the more encouraging developments around Indianapolis as the Colts head toward their season opener against Baltimore. The wide receiver missed most of training camp while working back from ankle surgery, but he has now returned to full-team practice and moved from positional work into full offensive participation, a sign the Colts had to be glad to see with Week 1 approaching.
Shane Steichen said Pierce is feeling good and will keep getting more reps before the game, which gives Indianapolis a welcome boost at a time when opening-night readiness matters. Whether Pierce is fully back to his usual workload right away is still the question, but the Colts have at least put themselves in position to have him available when the Ravens arrive. [Read more 🡒]
Daniel Jones Faces A Defining Colts Season For More Than One Reason
Daniel Jones is back in the Colts huddle for a second season, and this one carries far more certainty than the last. After working his way back from a torn Achilles tendon in seven months, he returned to full participation in training camp and now enters the year as Indianapolis clear starting quarterback, with the franchise showing its commitment by giving him a two-year contract extension.
Jones still has plenty to establish, though, because the second year of that deal is not something he can take for granted. He has to prove both that the injury is truly behind him and that his play matches the trust the Colts have placed in him, making this a pivotal season for his health, his job security and the direction of the offense. [Read more 🡒]