ESPN’s Seth Walder found a surprisingly bright path for the Indianapolis Colts in one 2026 NFL season simulation, and it started with a playoff berth nobody would call flashy.
Walder dug into ESPN’s Football Power Index projections and focused on one specific run of the model - simulation No. 9,187. In that version of the season, the Jaguars finished on top of the AFC South, while the Colts still clawed their way into the postseason as a wild card at 9-8.
"The Colts got into the playoffs by beating a Jaguars team that was resting its starters in Week 18," wrote Walder.
There’s reason the Colts can be an easy team to question, but the simulation points to a roster with some real appeal. Daniel Jones is healthy, and he’s backed by what should be a strong offensive line along with plenty of playmaking upside.
On defense, Indianapolis is projected to lean on a secondary that should be very good, plus a front led by DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart and Laiatu Latu. Even so, the depth across several spots remains a concern.
The simulated run didn’t stop at a wild-card appearance. Indianapolis also won a playoff game, knocking off Jacksonville in the AFC Wild Card round before the journey ended against Buffalo in the divisional round.
"It was a 180-degree reversal for Indianapolis, which lost its last seven games in 2025 to go from 8-2 to out of the playoffs," Walder wrote. "But the Colts' Cinderella run in 2026 ended with a 55-23 loss to top-seeded Buffalo in the divisional playoffs."
In Other News...
Colts Just Sent A Clear Message With This Late Roster Shakeup
The Colts made a late roster tweak this week, moving offensive tackle Luke Tenuta from the practice squad onto the 53-man roster and waiving cornerback Jaylon Jones to open the spot. Its the kind of transaction that can get overlooked on a busy roster sheet, but it points to where Indianapolis wanted a little more security heading into the stretch run: the backup tackle group.
Tenuta gives the Colts added depth behind the starting offensive line, while the corresponding practice-squad move brought in tight end Kenny Fletcher Jr. to fill the vacancy. Small as it may seem, the shuffle says plenty about how the team is trying to balance protection up front with the flexibility to keep the rest of the roster stocked. [Read more 🡒]
Colts Just Made A Secondary Decision Fans Didn't See Coming
The Colts kept tweaking the bottom of the roster by moving offensive tackle Luke Tenuta up from the practice squad to the 53-man roster, a shift that opened a spot for the team to make another pass at its depth. To keep the practice squad balanced, Indianapolis also brought in free agent tight end Kenny Fletcher Jr., an undrafted rookie out of Rutgers who made his college move from defensive end to tight end.
The move that stands out most is on the other side of the ball, where the Colts waived cornerback Jaylon Jones, a two-year starter for the team before this latest shake-up. Tenuta brings prior NFL stops with the Bills, Packers and Cardinals, but Jones departure adds a layer of intrigue because it trims from a position group that has mattered for Indianapolis, and it leaves one more roster question hanging as the team sorts out what it wants its secondary to look like next. [Read more 🡒]
Colts Secondary Draws Fresh Scrutiny Right Before The Opener
The Colts secondary is getting a little unwanted attention as the season opener approaches, with two defensive backs landing on the NFLs fine list for preseason infractions. Cam Taylor-Britt was hit for unnecessary roughness on a tackle in the finale against the Lions, while Trey Washington was fined for a facemask in a preseason game against the Falcons, adding a late-week reminder that discipline has been part of the conversation around this group.
The bigger issue for Indianapolis is the timing. Taylor-Britt is already set to miss the opener because of a separate suspension tied to a violation of the leagues personal conduct policy, leaving the Colts to sort out their back end without one of its most recognizable defenders. For a unit trying to settle in before the games start counting, the added fines only underscore how little margin there is for error. [Read more 🡒]