The Colts head into Sunday’s trip to Jacksonville carrying a lot more than a losing streak. They’re also carrying the weight of a franchise reset that has already changed the roster, the front office and the conversation around what comes next.
That reset has been moving fast. Owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon started it by firing general manager Chris Ballard on Oct. 19, then pushed it further with Tuesday’s trades of Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner.
Jonathan Taylor and/or Josh Downs could be next. Even with Taylor’s different view, the direction is clear: the Colts are building for 2027 and beyond.
That leaves the players in a tricky spot, especially with the season still unfolding and the locker room watching the business side take over.
“As players, we control what we can control and we’re controlling right now our preparation for Sunday and giving it all every single game,’’ left tackle Bernhard Raimann said. “It’s not really our job to build for the future. It’s our job to win on Sunday.’’
That’s easier said than done now that Nelson and Buckner are gone. It also makes Sunday feel like more than just another game, because the final 10 contests become an audition for Irsay-Gordon, her new GM and every other team in the league.
Some players will be part of the reboot. Others won’t.
Taylor sits right in the middle of that conversation. The Colts want him to be part of what’s next, and the trade deadline on Nov. 10 only sharpens the pressure.
If another team made an offer too good to ignore, the Colts would have to listen. There’s also the simple football reality that injured players lose value, which is why Sunday could tell us something about how Shane Steichen plans to handle Taylor and Downs.
Steichen said Friday it’ll be business as usual in Jacksonville.
If Taylor is still in the lineup, the Colts should keep feeding him. He has 587 rushing yards, which ranks fifth, and he’s the only back in the league with at least 90 rushing yards in five games.
The challenge is brutal: Jacksonville’s run defense leads the NFL in fewest rushing yards allowed per game at 72.2 and per attempt at 3.2. The most the Jaguars have given up to a back this year is 56 yards on 15 carries to Houston’s Woody Marks in Jacksonville’s 34-31 loss in London.
Still, the Colts’ ground game has been productive enough to matter. It ranks 14th, and over the last two games it produced 165 yards against the Titans and 154 against the Vikings.
Taylor has been especially effective against Jacksonville, averaging 95.8 yards per game and 5.1 per carry in nine games against the Jaguars. He set a club record with 253 rushing yards against them in the final game of 2020, his rookie season, and added 177 yards in the final game of ’24.
Last season, he had almost mirror-image outings in the two meetings: 74 yards on 21 carries in a 36-19 loss in Jacksonville and 70 on 21 in a 23-17 loss in Indy.
The larger problem for the Colts has been the kind of mistakes that keep sinking them. They have 12 turnovers and sit at a league-worst minus-9 in turnover margin.
Daniel Jones has been responsible for 10 turnovers, tying Justin Herbert and Drake Maye for the most in the league. He has thrown seven interceptions, including at least one in four straight games.
That’s part of why the Colts haven’t won the turnover battle in 12 straight games. In that stretch, they’re 2-12 and minus-16.
The correlation is impossible to miss. Indy’s three takeaways also match the 2012 team for the fewest in club history through the first seven games of a season.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, has thrived in that area. The Jaguars are 4-2 and atop the AFC South in part because they’re plus-5 in turnover margin. Their defense has seven interceptions, tied for third-most in the league, with cornerbacks Travis Hunter and Jourdan Lewis and linebacker Foyesade Oluokun each grabbing two.
The Jaguars’ offense has been rolling too. It ranks 11th in yards per game at 347.7 and tied for eighth in scoring at 25.7.
Trevor Lawrence is playing efficiently, completing 65.2 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns, four interceptions and a 106.3 rating. His supporting cast includes Bhayshul Tuten, who has 388 rushing yards and two scores, plus Parker Washington with 26 catches for 416 yards and four touchdowns, Jacobi Meyers with 20 receptions for 285 yards and two scores, and Brandon Stranger with 26 catches for 279 yards and one touchdown.
Lawrence has also handled the Colts well. He is 7-2 against them, with averages of 231.7 passing yards per game, a 69.5 percent completion rate, 13 touchdowns, four interceptions and a 100.3 rating.
The Colts’ defense has steadied some after an uneven start. Over the last five games, Lou Anarumo’s unit has allowed 270.6 yards per game, 5.1 yards per play and 21.2 points per game.
Sunday, he is likely to start three rookies: linebacker CJ Allen, nickel back Kapena Gushiken and safety A.J. Haulcy.
Even with that improvement, the matchup is steep. The Jaguars’ offense is more efficient, their defense creates more takeaways, and the Colts are walking into a building where they haven’t won since Sept.
21, 2014. That day, Andrew Luck threw for 370 yards and four touchdowns, Ahmad Bradshaw led the rushing attack and Reggie Wayne caught four passes for 62 yards.
Since then, the Colts have lost 10 straight in Jacksonville and 11 straight road games against the Jaguars if you include the 30-27 loss in London in 2016. Jacksonville has won five of the last eight and seven of the last nine, even though Indianapolis still leads the overall series 28-22.
The streak is the streak, the roster is thinner, and the Colts are staring at another difficult Sunday.
And the winner is: Jaguars 31, Colts 13.
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