Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts have a clear path to get back to .500 in Week 6, but the betting angle is a little trickier than the record would suggest.
The Colts return home to face a winless Tennessee Titans team that has struggled to generate much of anything on offense. Tennessee has scored 10 or fewer points in three of its five games, and through five weeks it has managed 20 or fewer points in every outing. Still, Indianapolis comes into this AFC South matchup with enough flaws of its own to make a touchdown spread feel a bit rich.
That’s the tension in Sunday’s game: the Titans have been ugly, but the Colts haven’t exactly looked clean on either side of the ball. Indianapolis is allowing the third-most yards per play in the NFL on defense, sitting 27th in EPA/Play and 26th in success rate.
The offense has been better at putting points on the board, but it ranks just 21st in success rate and 22nd in EPA/Play. The one stabilizer has been kicker Spencer Shrader, who has helped cover up some red-zone problems.
Tennessee’s offense has been even harder to watch. Former No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward is still working through major growing pains in his second season, and the numbers have been rough.
He has completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 896 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions in five games, and he’s averaging well under 200 passing yards per game. The Titans’ offense ranks last in yards per play, 31st in EPA/Play and 26th in success rate during their 0-5 start.
Ward’s overall body of work with Tennessee has been a struggle, too. In his first 22 starts, he has led the Titans to a 3-19 record.
That’s why the conversation around him is only going to get louder if things don’t turn quickly, especially with Tennessee tracking toward a top-five pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. If the team keeps sliding, it could also start evaluating other pieces on the roster, including first-round receiver Carnell Tate.
The road form hasn’t offered much relief for Tennessee, either. The Titans have won just two road games since the start of last season, and they’ve gone 4-5-1 against the spread in those games. That’s part of why the Colts have been the easy Survivor pick this week, even if laying the number is another matter.
Indianapolis does have a favorable setup before a difficult stretch against Minnesota, Jacksonville and Dallas. But despite Tennessee’s offensive issues, the Colts don’t look trustworthy enough to cover a full touchdown here.
My lean is with the Titans and the points in a divisional matchup.
In Other News...
Jeff Saturday Shared The Colts Title Memory Fans Will Love
Jeff Saturday spent 13 seasons anchoring the middle of the Colts' line and became one of the defining figures of that Super Bowl XLI run, so when he looks back on the championship, it is not hard to understand which memories still stand out. The former five-time Pro Bowler recently revisited that title season, and his favorite recollection had less to do with the football itself than the family moment that followed once the celebration spilled beyond the field.
Saturday pointed to the postgame scene with his entire family gathered after the win, a snapshot that captured what the ring meant away from the locker room noise. The story also came with a lighter family twist involving his young son and an Xbox game, a detail that has the kind of charm fans tend to remember just as fondly as the trophy itself, especially with another Super Bowl broadcast scheduled for WRTV on Feb. 14. [Read more 🡒]
Spencer Shrader Put Colts History In Play Even In A Loss
Even in a loss to the Steelers, there were a few Colts performances worth circling for reasons beyond the final score. Spencer Shrader handled the kicking duties cleanly, converting every field goal and extra point he tried, and Tyler Warren continued building an impressive early rsum with another game that put him alongside some notable franchise company at tight end.
Akeem Davis-Gaither also kept showing up around the ball, finishing with seven tackles for the fifth straight game in which he reached that mark. Still, Shraders night stood out most because of how much of the offense he accounted for in a game where Indianapolis had to lean on every point it could find, and there was a larger piece of team history hanging in the background as the Colts tried to salvage something from an otherwise frustrating result. [Read more 🡒]
Colts Win Over Steelers Looks Bigger After Another WR Blow
The Colts win over Pittsburgh already carried some weight, but it may look even better now with the Steelers taking another hit at wide receiver. Roman Wilson went down with a finger injury during the game and is expected to miss multiple weeks, adding another layer of concern for a Pittsburgh passing game that was already short on healthy options.
Wilson is seeking a second opinion, which only underscores how unsettled the situation is for the Steelers as they move into the next stretch of the schedule. With Michael Pittman Jr. already on injured reserve and limited depth behind him, Indianapolis defense may have helped expose a problem that could linger for more than one week. [Read more 🡒]