Daniel Jones, the Colts, and the 2026 Quarterback Question: What Happens Next?
Before his Achilles injury, Daniel Jones was rewriting his NFL story-and not in pencil. Through the first half of the 2025 season, the former Giants quarterback had found new life in Indianapolis, leading the league’s most explosive offense and forming a promising partnership with Colts head coach Shane Steichen. For a player whose career once teetered on the edge, Jones had finally found the right system, the right coach, and what looked like the right future.
The Colts seemed to agree. Public comments from both sides pointed toward a mutual desire to get a long-term deal done after the season. Then came the Achilles tear, and with it, a wave of uncertainty.
But here’s the twist: instead of pushing Jones away from Indy, the injury might’ve actually made his return more likely-at least in theory. A shorter, more team-friendly contract while he rehabs?
That’s the kind of move the Colts could stomach. They know the system fits him, they’ve seen the upside, and they might be the most willing to wait for his return.
But that’s assuming no one else jumps into the mix.
Is Jones-to-Indy in 2026 Really a Lock?
Right now, Daniel Jones’ name isn’t exactly dominating the free-agent rumor mill. And there’s a good reason for that-no one knows when he’ll be healthy enough to play. The prevailing assumption is that the Colts bring him back on a short-term deal, plug in a stopgap quarterback to hold down the fort, and hope Jones is ready before the 2026 season gets too deep.
In a perfect world, that placeholder might be Riley Leonard. Or, if fences can be mended, maybe even Anthony Richardson. Either way, the plan would be to lean on someone already in-house and on a manageable contract.
But that plan only works if no one else swoops in.
And in today’s quarterback-hungry NFL, all it takes is one team to decide Jones is worth the wait-and the money. One team to make the kind of long-term offer that forces Colts GM Chris Ballard into a corner.
The Price of Belief
Let’s not forget: less than a year ago, Jones was widely considered damaged goods. Now, he’s a 27-year-old quarterback with a resurgent half-season under his belt-and a serious injury.
That’s not exactly a slam-dunk investment. But quarterbacks are in such high demand that logic doesn’t always win the day.
The good news for Indy? The team most often floated as a potential suitor-Minnesota-is buried under a mountain of salary cap issues. Even with some creative accounting, it’s hard to see the Vikings outbidding anyone for a premium quarterback contract.
But they’re not the only ones in the market.
Who Else Could Make a Move?
The Arizona Cardinals have cap space. If they decide the Kyler Murray era has run its course, Jones could be an intriguing pivot.
The Pittsburgh Steelers? They’ve got room too.
It might sound wild, but imagine a scenario where someone like Aaron Rodgers is used as a temporary bridge while the team waits for Jones to get healthy. Outlandish?
Maybe. But not impossible.
Then there’s Las Vegas. Everyone assumes the Raiders are locked in on drafting Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick.
But the team still doesn’t have a head coach in place, and Tom Brady’s influence in the front office could reshape their priorities. What if the new regime isn’t sold on Mendoza?
What if they’d rather flip the top pick for a haul of draft capital and spend big on a proven (if injured) quarterback?
Las Vegas has the cap space. They could roll with someone like Aidan O’Connell or Kenny Pickett early in the year, then hand the keys to Jones once he’s cleared. Meanwhile, they’d be rebuilding the roster with the picks acquired from trading down-and maybe even moving on from Maxx Crosby in the process.
It’s not that far-fetched. In fact, it’s not all that different from the blueprint Seattle followed on their way to the Super Bowl this year, with Jones playing the Sam Darnold role in that scenario.
The Franchise Tag Option-and Its Price
Chris Ballard does have one fail-safe option: the franchise tag. It would guarantee Jones stays in Indy for one more year, giving the Colts time to work out a long-term deal while protecting themselves from losing him outright.
But that tag won’t come cheap. Current projections put the 2026 franchise tag for quarterbacks at around $47 million.
That’s a steep price just to buy time-especially when you consider that tagging a QB in back-to-back years is practically financial suicide. If Ballard goes that route, he’s betting big on getting a deal done for 2027.
Because after that, the Colts would lose leverage, lose time, and lose the benefit of a low-cost backup like Richardson, who’d no longer be under contract.
High Risk, High Reward
Make no mistake: offering Daniel Jones a big-money, long-term deal right now is a gamble. He’s coming off a major injury.
He’s had a rollercoaster career. But he also showed, in just half a season, that he can lead a high-octane offense when the system fits.
That’s enough to get the attention of quarterback-needy teams. And in a league where desperation often drives decision-making, it’s not out of the question that someone makes a bold move.
For the Colts, the challenge is clear. They need to have a plan in place-one that doesn’t involve rolling the dice on aging veterans or hoping for miracles. Because if another team decides to go all-in on Daniel Jones, Indy could find itself scrambling to replace a quarterback they thought they had locked up.
In the end, it’s a high-stakes offseason for Ballard and the Colts. And the clock is already ticking.