The Indianapolis Colts head into the 2026 offseason with a familiar feeling: questions swirling, decisions looming, and a roster that’s close-but not quite there. Despite sticking with general manager Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen, the pressure is mounting.
Ballard, now entering his tenth season at the helm, has built a reputation for solid drafting and roster construction. But let’s be honest-two playoff appearances in nine years doesn’t exactly scream “roster architect of the decade.”
This offseason may well be Ballard’s defining moment. With roughly $41.7 million in projected cap space, per Spotrac, the Colts have some financial room to maneuver-but not enough to bring everyone back without making tough calls.
Three key free agents-quarterback Daniel Jones, wide receiver Alec Pierce, and safety Nick Cross-are all up for new deals. Each brings something valuable to the table, but keeping all three?
That’s going to take some cap gymnastics.
Let’s break down where things stand with each player and what Ballard and the Colts are really facing.
Daniel Jones - Quarterback
Projected Market Value: 4 years, $178.2 million ($44.2M/year)
If you’re raising your eyebrows at that number, you’re not alone. $44 million a year is top-tier quarterback money, and while Jones showed flashes in 2025, it’s fair to question whether he’s earned that kind of investment. The Colts took a chance on him after his rocky tenure with the Giants, and in the early part of last season, it looked like that gamble might pay off. Jones was managing the offense well, showing improved command, and even flashing some of the athleticism that made him a first-round pick.
But then came the injuries-again. A broken fibula followed by a torn Achilles ended his season early, marking the third time in his career he's failed to finish a season due to injury.
That’s not just bad luck; it’s a trend. And for a quarterback whose game relies on mobility and timing, that’s a big red flag.
There’s also the matter of ball security. Even before the injuries, Jones was starting to turn the ball over more frequently.
His pocket awareness remains a concern, and his deep-ball decision-making can be hit or miss. Still, Steichen’s offense seemed to fit him better than what he had in New York.
If the Colts believe he can stay healthy and continue to grow in this system, he could be worth the investment-especially if the contract is structured creatively with back-loaded cap hits.
But that’s a big “if.” And at that price, Indy has to be absolutely sure he’s the guy.
Alec Pierce - Wide Receiver
Projected Market Value: 4 years, $81 million ($20.2M/year)
If you’re looking for a player who’s earned his payday, Alec Pierce is at the top of that list. He’s led the league in yards per catch two seasons in a row, and his vertical threat ability has become a cornerstone of the Colts’ passing game. He’s not a volume receiver-he’s not going to rack up 100 catches-but when he gets the ball, he makes it count.
That said, Pierce may not be entirely satisfied with his usage in Indy. For a player with his explosiveness, he might prefer an offense that leans more heavily on the pass.
The Colts have been fairly balanced, and at times conservative, with their aerial attack. If Pierce hits the open market, there will be teams lining up to give him a bigger role and a bigger paycheck.
The Colts could free up some cap space by moving on from Michael Pittman Jr., who carries a $29 million cap hit. Cutting him would save $24 million, which could go a long way toward re-signing Pierce and possibly Jones. It’s a tough call-Pittman is a reliable possession receiver-but Pierce offers a level of dynamism that’s harder to replace.
If it comes down to choosing between the two, the smart money might be on keeping the deep threat.
Nick Cross - Safety
Projected Market Value: 4 years, $24.3 million ($6.1M/year)
Of the three key free agents, Cross is the most affordable-and perhaps the most predictable. Under new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, Cross was used more aggressively in 2025, with designed blitzes bringing out a different side of his game. He posted 16 pressures and 2.5 sacks, showing he can be a weapon near the line of scrimmage.
Against the run, Cross continues to be solid. He’s physical, instinctive, and rarely out of position.
The issue, as it has been throughout his career, is coverage. Over the last two seasons, he’s allowed 10 touchdown passes and a passer rating north of 107 when targeted.
That’s not ideal for a starting safety in today’s pass-heavy NFL.
Still, at just over $6 million a year, Cross is a known commodity. He brings toughness, versatility, and familiarity with the system. Unless another team swoops in with a bigger offer, the Colts would be wise to keep him in the fold-especially as Anarumo continues to reshape the defense.
The Bottom Line
This offseason isn’t about overhauling the front office or coaching staff-it’s about getting the roster right. Chris Ballard has built a team with potential, but potential doesn’t win games in January. The decisions he makes in the coming months-starting with Jones, Pierce, and Cross-could determine whether the Colts are legitimate contenders in 2026 or once again stuck in the middle of the pack.
With limited cap space and some big contracts on the horizon, Ballard has to be strategic. Retaining all three players would be ideal, but it’s unlikely without some serious financial maneuvering.
That means prioritizing. That means risk.
And that means it’s time for the Colts’ front office to prove it can build more than just a promising roster-it’s time to build a winning one.