The Colts head to Jacksonville on Nov. 1 carrying a mess of bad numbers into a place that has been a nightmare for them for years.
Indianapolis has not won at Everbank Stadium since the 2014 season, and the skid has been as lopsided as it is long. The Colts have dropped 10 straight road games against the Jaguars, with most of those losses never really in doubt.
The average result in that stretch has been a 31-15 Jacksonville win, and the Jaguars have topped 30 points in six of those games. Even more painful for Indianapolis, the last two shutout losses in franchise history both came in Jacksonville.
That’s the backdrop for a Week 8 matchup that already looks steep for the Colts, who are 2-5, stuck in a three-game losing streak and coming off a week in which they traded away some of their top players. Jacksonville, meanwhile, sits atop the AFC South at 4-2.
If Indianapolis is going to snap the streak, three numbers loom large.
First, the Colts have to keep Jacksonville under 31 points. That’s not a random line. The Jaguars are 7-0 since the start of the 2025 season when they’ve scored more than 31, including last season’s 36-19 win over Indianapolis in Jacksonville, the game in which quarterback Daniel Jones tore his right Achilles tendon.
Second, the Colts need to win the passing battle. That’s a tough ask against Trevor Lawrence and a Jacksonville offense that has made the air game central under coach Liam Coen.
Since the start of the 2025 season, the Jaguars are 10-1 when they finish with more passing yards than their opponent. They are also 12-1 over the past two seasons when they hold the other team to 275 passing yards or fewer.
That formula played out in both 2025 meetings, when Jacksonville swept Indianapolis by limiting the Colts well below that mark and finishing with the edge through the air. The problem for the Colts is obvious: Jones and Indianapolis still haven’t thrown for 275 yards in a game this season.
Third, Indianapolis has to avoid a turnover disaster. The Colts haven’t won the turnover battle in any game this season, so that part of the equation is already shaky.
But the Jaguars’ own results show a very specific trigger. When Jacksonville has a two-takeaway advantage, it is 10-0 since the start of the 2025 season.
In all other games, the Jaguars are 7-6. Oddly enough, Jacksonville is also 3-0 since the start of 2025 when it loses the turnover battle.
That doesn’t mean the Colts should be trying to give the ball away. It just means the margin for error in this matchup is razor thin.
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