Colts vs. Weather: Why Sunday’s Forecast in Jacksonville Could Be the Game’s Biggest X-Factor
Weather usually plays second fiddle in NFL storylines - unless it demands a starring role. And this week in Jacksonville, it absolutely does.
Forecasts are calling for steady rain, cooler temperatures, and a slick, soggy field. That’s not just a footnote.
It’s a game-changer.
Rain doesn’t just wash out deep balls and slow down the passing game. It alters the entire rhythm of football - from the trenches to the secondary.
Footing becomes suspect, timing gets thrown off, and the ball turns into a bar of soap. The game doesn’t just look different; it is different.
Every snap carries a little more weight, and every possession feels like it could swing the outcome.
In these conditions, the margin for error shrinks dramatically. That’s why game planning becomes everything - and why the Colts would be wise to lean into a more physical, controlled style of play.
This isn’t about being conservative for the sake of it. It’s about managing risk, limiting chaos, and playing to the conditions.
A six-yard run might not light up the highlight reel, but it moves the chains, chews the clock, and keeps the ball out of harm’s way. On the road, in bad weather, that’s exactly how you win.
For Indianapolis, this kind of game practically begs for a Jonathan Taylor-heavy approach. Taylor’s not just a volume back - he’s a rhythm runner who gets better the more you give him the ball.
He thrives on patience, vision, and wearing down defenses. And on a wet field, that style becomes even more valuable.
One defender slips, one arm tackle misses, and a modest gain turns into a chunk play. Sloppy conditions favor the runner who keeps his feet and makes defenders pay for losing theirs.
It’s not just about Taylor’s potential to break one - it’s about what repeated carries do to a defense. On a muddy field, defenders don’t recover as quickly.
Lateral movement becomes a chore. Tackling gets sloppier.
Long drives don’t just move the scoreboard; they drain the legs and the will of the opponent. And in a game where explosive plays are harder to come by, that kind of attrition can tilt the field in your favor.
Now flip it to the passing game. Wet weather is a quarterback’s nightmare.
The ball is tougher to grip, routes lose their sharpness, and timing becomes a guessing game. Shotgun snaps can get dicey.
Linemen struggle to anchor, which means pressure gets home quicker. And when defenders don’t have to respect the deep ball as much, they can sit on short routes and jump passing lanes.
Even a QB playing a statistically “clean” game can find himself one slip, one tipped ball, or one sack-fumble away from disaster.
That’s why clock control and field position become premium assets in a game like this. Punting isn’t a concession - it’s a weapon.
Pinning an opponent deep on a wet field forces them to string together long, mistake-free drives. And in these conditions, that’s a tall order.
Every three-and-out feels heavier. Every possession becomes a grind.
This is where patience, discipline, and physicality take over - the kind of traits that rarely make headlines but often decide who walks away with the win.
For Shane Steichen, this isn’t just about adjusting to the rain. It’s about embracing the challenge.
Bad weather strips away the fluff. There’s no room for overthinking.
No space for stubbornly sticking to a pass-happy script. The best plans in games like this are often the simplest: run the ball, protect the football, and win the battle of attrition.
None of this guarantees a Colts win. Weather is unpredictable, and weird things happen in sloppy games.
But not adapting? That’s a recipe for trouble.
This is a divisional matchup, on the road, with playoff implications on the line. You don’t get style points in December - you get wins by doing the dirty work.
If the Colts want to stay in the hunt, they’ll need to embrace the grind. Because on Sunday in Jacksonville, the game won’t be decided by flash. It’ll be decided by who slips less, who stays patient, and who controls the chaos better.
The weather won’t win or lose this game. But how the Colts respond to it? That just might.