Indianapolis Colts fans only need to keep three numbers in view on September 13 if they want a clear read on how the season opener against the Baltimore Ravens might unfold.
The first is 25. If the Colts can get to that point total, they give themselves a real shot.
Baltimore was 8-1 last season when it kept opponents at 24 points or fewer, and it was 0-8 when it allowed 25 or more. That doesn’t mean 25 points guarantees anything for Indianapolis, but it does tell you that falling short of 25 probably leaves the Colts in trouble.
The Ravens’ losses in those higher-scoring games were not all blowouts, either - five of the eight came by one score or less. Still, when Baltimore kept teams at 24 or below, it usually controlled things, winning by an average of two touchdowns.
There’s another reason that number matters this time around. Baltimore is working under a new coaching staff, with Jesse Minter replacing longtime Ravens coach John Harbaugh. Minter comes from a defense-first background, and Baltimore’s path for the 2026 season is obvious: keep opposing offenses in check and let Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense do the heavy lifting.
The next number is 120, and it belongs to the Colts’ rushing attack. Last season, Indianapolis was rolling when it got there.
The Colts reached at least 120 rushing yards in seven of their first 12 games before the Dec. 7 game at Jacksonville, where Daniel Jones suffered the Achilles injury that ended his season in Week 14. Indianapolis went 7-0 in those games.
After that, the ground game fell off hard. The Colts didn’t come close to 120 rushing yards in their final four games, and that stretch lined up with a few different problems: defenses could focus on Jonathan Taylor and the run game, and Indianapolis spent so much time chasing games that it had to move away from the ground attack.
The result was a winless finish in those last four contests. If the Colts hit 120 rushing yards on Sunday, that’s usually a sign they’re playing on their terms.
Then there’s the turnover battle, and Baltimore made that one simple last season. The Ravens were undefeated in their seven games without a turnover, and they were winless in the six games when their defense failed to force one.
That leaves Indianapolis with a pretty clear target on Sept. 13: either force at least one takeaway or protect the ball so cleanly that Baltimore ends up with a zero in that column. For the Colts, the more realistic path is probably creating one themselves.
They forced at least one turnover in 15 of 17 games last season.
In Other News...
Colts Just Sent A Clear Message With This Late Roster Shakeup
The Colts made a late roster tweak this week, moving offensive tackle Luke Tenuta from the practice squad onto the 53-man roster and waiving cornerback Jaylon Jones to open the spot. Its the kind of transaction that can get overlooked on a busy roster sheet, but it points to where Indianapolis wanted a little more security heading into the stretch run: the backup tackle group.
Tenuta gives the Colts added depth behind the starting offensive line, while the corresponding practice-squad move brought in tight end Kenny Fletcher Jr. to fill the vacancy. Small as it may seem, the shuffle says plenty about how the team is trying to balance protection up front with the flexibility to keep the rest of the roster stocked. [Read more 🡒]
Colts Just Made A Secondary Decision Fans Didn't See Coming
The Colts kept tweaking the bottom of the roster by moving offensive tackle Luke Tenuta up from the practice squad to the 53-man roster, a shift that opened a spot for the team to make another pass at its depth. To keep the practice squad balanced, Indianapolis also brought in free agent tight end Kenny Fletcher Jr., an undrafted rookie out of Rutgers who made his college move from defensive end to tight end.
The move that stands out most is on the other side of the ball, where the Colts waived cornerback Jaylon Jones, a two-year starter for the team before this latest shake-up. Tenuta brings prior NFL stops with the Bills, Packers and Cardinals, but Jones departure adds a layer of intrigue because it trims from a position group that has mattered for Indianapolis, and it leaves one more roster question hanging as the team sorts out what it wants its secondary to look like next. [Read more 🡒]
Colts Secondary Draws Fresh Scrutiny Right Before The Opener
The Colts secondary is getting a little unwanted attention as the season opener approaches, with two defensive backs landing on the NFLs fine list for preseason infractions. Cam Taylor-Britt was hit for unnecessary roughness on a tackle in the finale against the Lions, while Trey Washington was fined for a facemask in a preseason game against the Falcons, adding a late-week reminder that discipline has been part of the conversation around this group.
The bigger issue for Indianapolis is the timing. Taylor-Britt is already set to miss the opener because of a separate suspension tied to a violation of the leagues personal conduct policy, leaving the Colts to sort out their back end without one of its most recognizable defenders. For a unit trying to settle in before the games start counting, the added fines only underscore how little margin there is for error. [Read more 🡒]