The Texans are staring at a clean chance to get right in Week 3.
Houston and Indianapolis both enter this AFC South matchup at 0-2, but the Texans are the team getting the market’s attention. The line opened with Houston favored by 1.5 points on Sunday night and has since moved to Texans -3 on the road.
That move makes sense when you look at what each side has put on tape so far. Houston has already been through the gauntlet, falling to Buffalo and Cincinnati in back-to-back games.
The offense also took a hit in Week 2 with Nico Collins out because of a hamstring injury, even though C.J. Stroud still threw for more than 350 yards against the Bengals.
The catch? He completed under 55 percent of his passes.
Now the Texans get a different kind of test. Indianapolis has been beaten up through the air, ranking 29th in the NFL in EPA/Pass on defense.
The Colts were also lit up by Baltimore in Week 1 and gave up more than 30 points in a loss to Kansas City on Sunday night in Week 2. That sets up a favorable spot for Stroud and Houston’s passing game.
The Colts did show a little more on offense in Week 2, thanks in large part to a big performance from Jonathan Taylor. Daniel Jones also looked improved in his second game back from an Achilles injury, but Indianapolis took a hit when receiver Alec Pierce went down with a heel injury and is expected to miss at least the next four weeks.
That matters because the Colts want to run the ball, and Houston has been sturdy against that plan. The Texans are 11th in EPA/Rush and have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry this season, which gives them a real chance to force Indianapolis out of its comfort zone.
SI Betting senior editor Iain MacMillan is leaning Houston as well. In his Road to 272 column, he backed the Texans to cover as a road favorite, pointing to the Colts’ ugly underlying numbers and the matchup on the ground.
“The Colts put up a valiant fight in their Week 2 loss to the Chiefs, but there are some underlying numbers that have me concerned about them moving forward. First of all, they're dead last in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -2.2 through the first two weeks. Of course, you can forgive that a bit based on the teams they've had to face so far, but it's worth noting nonetheless.
The key to beating the Colts is stopping the run, which will play right into the Texans' hands. They are top-10 in the NFL in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate, despite one of their first two games coming against the best rushing attack in the league.
Getting Nico Collins back for this game would certainly help our bet, but I feel comfortable betting on this Texans team to win and cover the 2.5-point spread.
I love Houston against an Indy team that is dead last in the NFL in EPA/Play this season. While the offense looked a lot better against Kansas City in Week 2, the loss of Pierce is huge for the Colts’ downfield passing game.
We’ve seen Houston get burned a bit by two elite quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, but I don’t expect a similar result with Jones under center. The Texans are still a playoff-caliber team in my book, and I expect them to avoid an 0-3 start in Week 3.”
The prediction angle here is straightforward: Houston has been tested by better quarterbacks, but this matchup doesn’t look nearly as punishing. With the Colts missing Pierce and still trying to find their footing, the Texans are in position to bounce back and avoid 0-3.
In Other News...
Colts Injury Report Brings Relief With One Big Texans Concern Still Looming
The Colts got a little clarity on the injury front this week as they and the Texans worked through practice ahead of Sundays matchup. Indianapolis still has its own health questions, with several players showing up as limited or not practicing, including wide receivers Ashton Dulin and Alec Pierce, and Pierce is expected to land on injured reserve.
Houston, though, has its own issue that could matter just as much for the game plan. The Texans report included key names such as tackle Trent Brown and receiver Nico Collins, with both listed among the players dealing with injuries, and that leaves one of the bigger concerns in the matchup still hanging over the week. [Read more 🡒]
Colts May Get A Huge Defensive Boost For Must Win Texans Test
The Colts are getting some encouraging signs on the defensive side as they prepare for a Week 3 showdown with the Texans. Cornerback Charvarius Ward, who has been dealing with a groin injury, is trending toward being available for the matchup, a development that would matter plenty for an Indianapolis secondary facing a pivotal early-season test.
Wards status is still the main item to watch, especially with his recent concussion history from last season lingering in the background. Indianapolis has already ruled out wide receiver Ashton Dulin for the game, so any boost from Ward would help balance out what the Colts can bring to a must-win division battle in Houston. [Read more 🡒]
Sauce Gardners Colts Start Has Brought More Heat Than Answers
Sauce Gardner arrived in Indianapolis with the sort of rsum that usually comes with instant credibility, and he has tried to bring that same edge to the Colts secondary. A two-time first-team All-Pro and the 2023 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Gardner has already stepped into a leadership role since the trade from the Jets, even as the broader results have been uneven and the team has dropped to 1-3 with him in the building.
Justin Walley has been asked to fill in at nickel corner in Gardners absence, and the rookie has been getting thrown into the kind of reps that can speed up development whether the day goes cleanly or not. It has been a useful stretch for the Colts to see what they have behind their headline addition, but it also underscores the larger question hanging over the move: when Gardner is on the field, how quickly can this start turn from intrigue into the kind of impact Indianapolis expected? [Read more 🡒]