Just a month ago, the Indianapolis Colts looked like one of the NFL’s best stories - a team with swagger, momentum, and a real shot at making noise in the postseason. But fast-forward a few weeks, and the narrative has flipped.
That 8-2 start feels like a distant memory. Now, with a critical Monday night matchup against the 10-4 49ers looming, the Colts are staring down the barrel of a five-game losing streak - and potentially the end of their playoff hopes.
Let’s rewind a bit. Back in Week 10, the Colts pulled off a dramatic overtime win over the Falcons.
That victory capped off a run that had them sitting atop the AFC standings, thanks in part to a narrow win over the Broncos that hinged on a late penalty. At that point, everything seemed to be breaking their way.
Then came the bye week - and everything broke the other way.
Since then, Indianapolis has dropped four straight. That sounds bleak, but it’s not the full story.
Outside of a 17-point loss to the Jaguars - the only game that truly got away from them - the Colts have been right there in every contest. The other three losses?
Decided by a combined nine points. So yeah, the record looks rough, but this hasn’t been a team getting blown off the field.
They’ve been competitive. Just not quite good enough.
And that’s the problem.
Heading into Monday night, Indianapolis is 2-6 against teams with winning records this season. That’s not a stat you want to carry into a game against one of the NFC’s top contenders. The 49ers are rolling, and if the Colts can’t find a way to pull off the upset, their playoff chances take a nosedive.
Here’s what’s at stake: if Indy wins, they still have to run the table - beating the Jaguars in Week 17 and the Texans in Week 18. That’s no easy task, but at least it keeps the door open.
But if they lose to San Francisco? The playoff math gets brutal.
With most of the Week 16 results already in, the Colts’ postseason odds hinge almost entirely on this game. A win boosts their playoff chances to 86 percent - assuming they also win out.
A loss drops that number to just 13 percent. That’s not just a swing - that’s a cliff.
Why the massive drop? It comes down to the standings.
Jacksonville picked up their 11th win on Sunday, and Houston notched their 10th. That officially eliminates the Colts from AFC South title contention.
So now it’s wild card or bust - and unfortunately for Indy, the wild card race is packed.
The Chargers and Steelers both picked up wins that seriously dented the Colts’ margin for error. And the tie-breaker scenarios?
Let’s just say they’re not doing Indianapolis any favors. Even if the Colts beat the 49ers and Jaguars, they’ll still need help.
If Houston loses to the Chargers in Week 17, the Colts’ playoff chances tick up from 13 to 27 percent. Still not great, but better than the alternative.
If the Texans win that game? Indy’s odds drop to near zero.
So yes, the math is complicated - the NFL’s tie-breaker system is practically a code unto itself - but the bottom line is simple: the Colts need to win. Not just Monday night, but every game from here on out. And even then, they’ll need a few dominoes to fall their way.
That Week 10 magic feels like a long time ago. Now, it’s gut-check time.
If Jonathan Taylor can get rolling, and if the defense can rise to the occasion, there’s still a path. But it starts with beating the 49ers.
Without that, the rest of the season could be little more than a slow fade from what once looked like something special.