The Baltimore Ravens arrive in Indianapolis as 3.5-point favorites for Sunday’s Week 1 meeting with the Colts, but plenty of the early picks point toward a tighter game than the line suggests.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 13, at Lucas Oil Stadium on CBS. Both teams finished 8-9 last season and missed the playoffs, and both come into this opener with reasons for optimism - and a few questions.
Indianapolis is set to lean on a familiar core on offense, with quarterback Daniel Jones, running back Jonathan Taylor and wide receiver Alec Pierce all back after the group helped start the 2025 season 7-1. Baltimore, meanwhile, turns to two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson in the first game under coach Jesse Minter and offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, with Derrick Henry still leading the backfield.
The betting market has the Ravens favored by 3.5 points, with an over/under of 48 total points. On the moneyline, the Colts are +155 and the Ravens are -190.
A few analysts see this as a chance for Indianapolis to hang around - or even steal it outright.
Joel A. Erickson of IndyStar took the Colts 34-28, pointing to the matchup between Shane Steichen and Minter after what happened when Minter was the Chargers’ defensive coordinator.
"New Baltimore head coach Jesse Minter was the Chargers’ defensive coordinator last season, and Colts coach Shane Steichen had every answer for Minter’s defense in a Los Angeles shootout. Daniel Jones looks healthier than anybody could have expected, and even with Lamar Jackson under center, Minter could have trouble slowing down Steichen’s offense again."
Nathan Brown of IndyStar also leaned Colts, 27-24. "Facing Lamar Jackson under center remains a tall task - especially for a team with uncertainty about how well it can rush the quarterback. But with speed at linebacker, the Colts contain him just enough to let Steichen again get the best of Minter in a tight one."
Others expect Baltimore to leave with the win, even if the opener stays competitive.
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk picked the Ravens 24-20 and said, "The team that fled Baltimore in 1984 hosts the team that backfilled the vacancy 12 years later. It’s a tough opener for a new coaching staff, but the Ravens have Lamar Jackson - and he seems to be a big believer in the new offense."
Florio also wrote, "The Ravens and first-year coach Jesse Minter face a tough road game to open the season. Lamar Jackson and the new-look offense will have success here on the fast track.
The Colts won't be able to match that. Look for a lot of points in this one with Jackson winning it."
Dan Parr of NFL.com went with Ravens 28-24. "First-year Ravens head coach Jesse Minter has an opportunity to prove his worth right away against an offense that scored in bunches when QB Daniel Jones was healthy last year.
Minter needs no reminder of that fact, as the Colts went on the road and dropped 38 on his Chargers in Week 7, the most points allowed by the Bolts all season. Can the defensive guru avenge that loss with his new crew?
On paper, he has the weaponry to make it happen. It will certainly help if Jones is at all rusty in his first game back since tearing his Achilles in December."
Still, the spread has drawn some support for Indianapolis.
Vic Tafur of The Athletic picked the Ravens to cover, while Brent Sobleski of Bleacher Report and Jimmy Kempski of Philly Voice both liked the Colts against the number. Sobleski pointed to the matchup up front, writing, "Interestingly, the Indianapolis Colts' defense has a very specific matchup in its favor, with the defensive tackle duo of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart facing two brand-new starters along the Baltimore Ravens' offensive line.
Thus, the Colts could control the line of scrimmage to make life difficult on quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry. Offensively, Indianapolis should have all of its pieces back in place to get off to a hot start, as it did last season."
Kempski was even more direct: "I think I like this Colts team a little bit. They have a very good run-blocking offensive line, and in 2025 they played really well early on before injuries wrecked their season. Should they really be 3.5-point home dogs to this perpetually underachieving Ravens team?"
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Colts Week 1 Matchup Just Changed In A Big Way
The Colts Week 1 trip to Baltimore already had plenty of intrigue, and now the matchup looks a little different up front. Ravens defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike will not play after a neck injury required surgery, a notable loss for a defense that likes to set the tone in the trenches. For Indianapolis, that could matter immediately, especially in a game where Jonathan Taylor and the Colts run game figure to be central to the plan.
Indianapolis still has its own questions to sort through, of course, with DeForest Buckner anchoring one side of the line and Quenton Nelson again set to be a major factor in how the offense holds up. Tanor Bortolini is part of that conversation too as the Colts keep working through the details that always matter in an opener. But Madubuikes absence removes one of Baltimores most disruptive pieces, and it gives the Colts a little more room to attack a test that was never going to be simple. [Read more 🡒]
Colts Add A Defensive Piece Theyve Wanted For A While
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Gushikens immediate task is less about making a splash and more about absorbing the Colts defensive playbook as quickly as possible. For a player coming in after training camp, the challenge is jumping from a different system into one that can ask plenty from the nickel spot, and the early focus will be on getting comfortable enough to help wherever the coaching staff needs him most. [Read more 🡒]
3 Colts Who Could Decide Whether Week 1 Gets Away Fast
The Colts do not have to look far to find the players whose first regular-season snaps could say a lot about how far this opener can go. Jalen Travis is moving into a full-time starting job at right tackle, Arden Key is part of the defensive end rotation the defense will lean on against Baltimore, and Justin Walley is set to open the year as the nickel cornerback after missing his rookie season because of injury.
Each one is stepping into a role that carries more weight than a normal Week 1 assignment. Travis has to help stabilize the edge, Key has to bring dependable pressure and run support, and Walley has to hold up in the slot in a game where the Ravens can force defenses to cover every inch of the field. If one of those spots wobbles early, the Colts could be chasing the game fast, and the way those three handle the moment may matter well beyond Sunday. [Read more 🡒]