Week 7 brings a fresh batch of pass-catcher matchups worth circling, and a few of them stand out as especially friendly for fantasy managers trying to break a tie. The slot and boundary splits can’t make the decision for you, but they can tilt the board in one direction or the other.
At slot receiver, Minnesota gets a spot that puts TJ Hockenson in the spotlight. Jauan Jennings has only been targeted on 5 percent of his pass routes this season, which leaves Hockenson as the Vikings pass catcher most likely to benefit from a Colts defense that has been vulnerable to slot production all year.
Hockenson is back from a brain injury and has lined up in the slot on about 40 percent of his routes this season. Before his Week 5 head injury, he ranked second among all tight ends in expected fantasy points per route, and the Colts have allowed the NFL’s tenth highest EPA per target to opposing tight ends.
As the barista told me this morning, Hock is in a good spot in Week 7.
Jaylin Noel also lands in a matchup that could push him into relevance. He has been running nearly 70 percent of his pass routes from the slot, and he draws a Giants secondary that has allowed a lot of slot volume. New York is not exactly a sieve against slot work - it allows the league’s tenth lowest adjusted yards per attempt on slot targets and the fifth lowest completion rate over expected - but Noel’s usage should give him enough chances to matter in 12-team leagues.
Then there’s Malik Washington, who keeps popping up in this space because Miami keeps giving him a path to relevance. He gets the Jets, and New York is allowing the league’s tenth highest adjusted yards per attempt on slot targets.
Over the past three weeks, only four defenses - the Bears, Raiders, Bengals, and Saints - have been worse on slot passes. Washington is a major positive regression candidate with a favorable draw.
Malik Willis has thrown to the slot at the league’s eighth highest rate, 31 percent, so there’s at least a lane for Washington to matter.
On the boundary side, the Saints have a matchup that helps Bryce Lance and Chris Olave. Pittsburgh is giving up the highest boundary target share and the 11th highest adjusted yards per attempt on boundary passes.
Lance runs 76 percent of his routes from outside, and with Jordyn Tyson out at least another week, the opportunity is there. Only eight teams have allowed more receiving yardage on boundary throws than the Steelers, and only four have given up more boundary touchdowns.
That also works in Olave’s favor, since he runs 68 percent of his routes from out wide. Lance looks like a viable flex play in Week 7.
Denzel Boston should also have a chance to do damage against Tennessee. He’s been quiet lately, with just 61 receiving yards over his last two games, but he runs almost all of his routes from the boundary, and this setup looks promising.
The Titans have become more of a pass funnel after opening the season as a modest run funnel. Their run defense has tightened over the past four weeks, and on the season only eight teams allow a lower rushing success rate.
That could force the Browns, who own one of the league’s worst rushing attacks, to lean into the pass. Tennessee gives up the eighth highest success rate on boundary throws and ranks fourth in EPA per target on boundary attempts.
Boston has handled 45 percent of Cleveland’s air yards and 18.5 percent of the team’s targets, so this is a spot where the variance could swing his way.
Carolina’s receiving picture points more toward Jalen Coker than Tetairoa McMillan in Week 7. Coker runs 45 percent of his routes from outside, while McMillan lines up on the boundary at a 71 percent rate.
That doesn’t mean McMillan belongs on the bench - you are definitely not benching him - but Coker looks like the upside play among the Panthers’ receivers. That’s especially true in an offense that has been excellent for fantasy, with the Panthers first in offensive pace, third in neutral pass rate, first in red zone pass rate, and third in total team air yards per game.
They are letting Bryce Young cook and it's working beautifully.
Seattle’s boundary receivers, by contrast, walk into a brutal spot against Kansas City. Rashid Shaheed has a tough assignment, and the numbers are stark: the Chiefs have allowed 91 fantasy points this season on boundary targets, while the Bills, the league leaders, have given up 251 to boundary pass catchers.
Kansas City is shutting down outside receivers better than anyone, allowing no lower EPA per target on outside passes, and only the Bengals are giving up a lower adjusted yards per attempt on throws to the boundary. That makes the matchup rough for Shaheed and also for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who runs 71 percent of his pass routes from the boundary.
Please hear me though: Matchups don’t matter for a player of JSN’s caliber.
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