The Colts are still hanging around, even after six weeks, a fired general manager, and a three-game losing streak. That’s the strange thing about the NFL: a season can look like it’s slipping away, then suddenly one Sunday flips the whole conversation. For Indianapolis, that Sunday is in Jacksonville.
Beat the AFC South-leading Jaguars, and the Colts cut the division gap to a game-and-a-half while also grabbing a tiebreaker that could matter later. The stretch after that is also sitting there for the taking, with four upcoming opponents combining for a 9-16-1 record. Only the Giants have a winning mark, and they still haven’t beaten a team with a winning record.
So no, the season is not dead yet. But the margin for error is thin, and Shane Steichen’s team has to clean up a lot if it wants to walk out of Jacksonville with a win.
The biggest ask is simple to say and hard to pull off: the Colts have to put together a complete game. Their issues haven’t lived in one place.
The defense has been the main problem, but special teams helped Tennessee get its first win of the season two weeks ago, and last week the offense failed to back up what was the team’s best defensive performance of the year. There isn’t a neat answer for why one phase keeps letting the others down.
The roster may just not be strong enough across all three units, and that’s part of why Chris Ballard is gone. Whatever the reason, Steichen needs every part of the operation working together this week.
The offense, in particular, has to stop waiting around and get the run game involved early. Against the Vikings, the Colts did commit to it: 29 of their 59 plays were runs, plus four Daniel Jones scrambles.
Outside of Jonathan Taylor’s long touchdown burst, though, the ground game didn’t do much. That approach has to be even more forceful against Jacksonville because the passing game simply hasn’t been reliable enough.
There’s no guarantee it gets easier. The Jaguars are built to handle the run in the middle of the field, with Foyesade Oluokun and Ventrell Miller doing the heavy lifting at linebacker.
They’re sturdy up front, and Antonio Johnson helps on the back end. Still, Houston showed last week that persistence can pay off, even when the ground game isn’t humming.
If there’s a game where the Colts need Quenton Nelson and the rest of the line to drag the offense forward, this is it. One wrinkle to watch: sets with Jonathan Taylor and Seth McGowan on the field together could help the Colts vary what they do on the ground.
Defensively, the plan has to include heat on Trevor Lawrence. Liam Coen has clearly helped unlock him, and Lawrence looks more dangerous than he has in a while.
But pressure still gets to him. That’s been the story in his roughest outings, the ones against Denver, Philadelphia, and Houston, where defenses kept throwing bodies at him.
Since the Colts can’t consistently win with just four rushers, Lou Anarumo may have to lean on blitzes. Jaylahn Tuimoloau and Adetomiwa Adebawore also have a chance to build on strong performances from last week.
However it’s drawn up, Indianapolis can’t sit back and hope Lawrence makes life easy.
The passing game brings its own problem, and it starts with Travis Hunter. Parker Washington has become Lawrence’s favorite target, going from sixth-round pick to borderline elite in four years.
Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange are also threats. But Hunter is the new wrinkle that changes the picture.
He’s still mainly a defender, but after missing his entire rookie season, the Heisman Trophy winner turned in his best game as a receiver last week: four targets, four catches, 59 yards and a touchdown. Put him in the slot and the Jaguars become a lot tougher to manage, and slot coverage has not been a Colts strength this season.
That’s why third downs could decide everything. Indianapolis has been good there on defense, ranking fourth in the league.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, is third-best in the NFL at converting them. That’s the kind of matchup that usually tells you who’s controlling the game.
It won’t all come down to one phase, either. The offense needs to stay ahead of the chains, because moving the sticks on its own drives helps the defense, too.
But when Jacksonville gets into those money downs, the Colts have to win most of those snaps.
And then there’s the part everyone is watching: Daniel Jones. He has to be better.
The Jaguars aren’t an all-out blitz team, but they can still create enough pressure to make quarterbacks uncomfortable, and they’ve done a good job taking the ball away. Seven interceptions in six games ties them for second-best in the league, and their turnover percentage is third-best.
That is a bad matchup for an Indianapolis offense that has been careless with the ball and owns the fourth-worst turnover percentage in the league.
It’s not all on Jones, but it starts with him. If he doesn’t play better, the Colts won’t have much of a chance.
In Other News...
Shane Steichen Suddenly Faces A Colts Situation He May Not Survive
The Colts have already spent the week ripping up the old order, starting with the firing of Chris Ballard and then the stunning departures of Pro Bowl guard Quenton Nelson and All-Pro defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. Shane Steichen didnt try to minimize what those losses mean, acknowledging the value of both veterans while also pointing to the younger players now being asked to absorb a much bigger role in a hurry.
For Steichen, the challenge is no longer just replacing talent on the field. With speculation already swirling around possible moves involving Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs, the roster feels like it is still in motion, and so does the coachs own standing. The Colts are suddenly in a place where every decision carries extra weight, and Steichens future may hinge on how well the next wave of players handles the pressure. [Read more 🡒]
Colts Face One Huge Free Agency Question Around Anthony Richardson
The Colts uneven season has already produced one major shakeup, with Chris Ballard out as general manager while Shane Steichen remains in place. With Indianapolis expected to be a seller before the Nov. 10 trade deadline, the focus is starting to shift from this years disappointments to what the roster could look like next fall, especially with several notable names moving toward free agency.
Among the biggest questions is Anthony Richardson, whose future is tied to how the quarterback picture settles over the rest of the season. Grover Stewart is also nearing a crossroads, and Keenan Allen is in the same uncertain group, but Richardsons situation carries the most weight because it could reshape the Colts long-term direction at the games most important position. [Read more 🡒]
Colts Finally Get A Needed Boost In A Very Strange Week 8
For a Colts team that has spent a strange week sorting through injuries, lineup shuffling and the fallout from a pair of major trades, there was at least some clarity heading into Week 8. Shane Steichen said cornerback Sauce Gardner and tight end Tyler Warren will be available against the Jaguars, giving Indianapolis a needed boost on both sides of the ball as it tries to steady itself after parting with DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson.
The availability report still leaves the roster in a mixed state, though, with Anthony Gould and Justin Walley ruled out because of injuries. Add in the uncertainty around players such as Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor, who were not played in a week when trade considerations seemed to be part of the backdrop, and the Colts are still navigating a very unusual stretch even with a couple of key names set to return. [Read more 🡒]