NFL Week 15 Playoff Picture: Contenders, Tiebreakers, and What’s at Stake
Week 15 kicks off with a must-win Thursday night showdown for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are clinging to the top spot in the NFC South. But that’s just the beginning - as the weekend unfolds, nearly every game carries playoff implications, whether it’s about seeding, survival, or setting up a division-deciding clash. Here's where things stand heading into the stretch run:
AFC Playoff Picture
Division Leaders
1. Broncos (11-2)
Denver controls its destiny. With the head-to-head tiebreaker over New England in their back pocket, the Broncos will lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed if they win out.
That means home-field advantage throughout the playoffs - a massive edge in the Mile High air.
2. Patriots (11-2)
New England’s grip on the AFC East looks solid, but their path to the top seed depends on Denver slipping. The Patriots can’t afford a misstep, but they’ll need help to leapfrog the Broncos.
3. Jaguars (9-4)
After dispatching the Colts, Jacksonville has taken firm control of the AFC South. The defense is playing with swagger again, and the offense is doing just enough to keep them in the driver's seat.
4. Steelers (7-6)
Pittsburgh picked the perfect time to deliver its biggest win of the season, knocking off the Ravens in Baltimore. That victory not only gave them life in the AFC North but also vaulted them back into the playoff picture.
Wild Cards
5. Chargers (9-4)
Los Angeles is holding the top wild card spot thanks to a stronger AFC record than Buffalo. The offense is clicking, and the defense is doing just enough - this is a team no one wants to face in January.
6. Bills (9-4)
Buffalo’s path to the AFC East crown is slim with New England ahead, but the Bills are in excellent shape for a wild card. They’ve got the talent and the schedule to make sure they’re playing past Week 18.
7. Texans (8-5)
Houston’s head-to-head win over the Colts is keeping them in the playoff field - for now. With a crowded AFC middle tier, every game from here on out feels like a must-win.
Outside Looking In
8. Colts (8-5)
Indianapolis is hanging on, but the road ahead is steep. They’ll need a big finish - and maybe some late-season magic from Philip Rivers - to sneak into the postseason.
9. Ravens (6-7)
That home loss to Pittsburgh was a gut punch. Baltimore’s margin for error is gone, and they’ll need to win out - and get help - to stay in the mix.
10. Chiefs (6-7)
Kansas City is on the brink. They could be mathematically eliminated as early as Sunday, and even a perfect finish might not be enough.
11. Dolphins (6-7)
Miami’s in the same boat as the Chiefs - technically alive, but barely. They’ve shown flashes, but the inconsistency has been costly.
12. Bengals (4-9)
The loss in Buffalo sealed a losing season. At this point, it’s about evaluating young talent and playing spoiler.
13-16. Jets (3-10), Browns (3-10), Raiders (2-11), Titans (2-11)
All four teams are officially eliminated. It’s draft season for these squads.
NFC Playoff Picture
Division Leaders
1. Rams (10-3)
Los Angeles holds the top seed in the NFC, thanks to a head-to-head win over Seattle. They’ve been steady on both sides of the ball, and their December 18 rematch with the Seahawks could decide the division - and maybe more.
2. Packers (9-3-1)
Green Bay’s win over the Bears was massive. That half-game cushion could be the difference between a home playoff game and a wild card road trip.
3. Eagles (8-5)
The reigning champs are reeling, dropping three straight, but they still hold a 1.5-game lead in the NFC East. It’s not comfortable, but it’s theirs - for now.
4. Buccaneers (7-6)
Tampa Bay enters Thursday night still atop the NFC South, holding the edge over Carolina via the common games tiebreaker. But with two matchups against the Panthers still ahead, the division is far from settled.
Wild Cards
5. Seahawks (10-3)
Seattle is rolling, but they’ll need to take down the Rams next week to reclaim the NFC West lead. That game is shaping up to be one of the biggest of the season.
6. 49ers (9-4)
Injuries have piled up, but San Francisco keeps finding ways to win. Their resilience has them firmly in the playoff mix, and they’re not going away quietly.
7. Bears (9-4)
Chicago’s path to the NFC North is simple: win out. That’s easier said than done, but the defense is elite, and they’ve got the pieces to make a run.
Outside Looking In
8. Lions (8-5)
Detroit’s scenario is clear - win out, and they’re in. Anything less, and they’ll need help.
The offense is potent, but the margin for error is razor-thin.
9. Panthers (7-6)
Carolina’s playoff hopes - and the division title - come down to their two remaining games against the Bucs. Win both, and they’re likely in.
Lose one, and they’ll need help.
10. Cowboys (6-6-1)
Dallas has no room for missteps. Even if they run the table, a playoff spot isn’t guaranteed.
The tie could help them… or haunt them.
11. Vikings (5-8)
Minnesota’s in last place in the NFC North and on the brink of elimination. It’s been a tough year in the Twin Cities.
12-16. Falcons (4-9), Cardinals (3-10), Saints (3-10), Commanders (3-10), Giants (2-11)
All mathematically eliminated. These teams are now playing for pride - and positioning in April.
The Bottom Line
Week 15 is where the playoff race starts to crystallize. For teams like the Broncos and Rams, it’s about locking up top seeds.
For others - like the Colts, Panthers, and Lions - every snap matters as they fight to stay alive. And for a few squads teetering on the edge, this weekend could be the end of the line.
Buckle up - the final stretch is here, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.