The Indiana Pacers may have traded away their 2026 first-round pick to the Los Angeles Clippers in the Ivica Zubac deal, but thanks to some savvy protection clauses, there’s still a real shot that the pick stays in Indiana. And with the way this draft class is shaping up, that possibility could be a game-changer for a team looking to build something sustainable.
Here’s the situation: if the Pacers’ pick lands between No. 5 and No. 9, it goes to the Clippers. Anywhere else - whether it’s in the top four or outside the top nine - and it remains with Indiana.
That puts the Pacers in a fascinating position as the season winds down. Do they push for a few more wins and try to sneak into the 10-30 range, securing the pick that way?
Or do they lean into the current trajectory and hope the lottery gods smile on them?
According to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, the answer from inside the organization is pretty clear: they’re gunning for a top-four pick. On a recent episode of The Hoop Collective, Windhorst said he asked the Pacers directly about the idea of trying to win just enough to keep the pick out of the 5-9 danger zone.
Their response? “Hell no.
We’re trying to get to the top four,” he said with a laugh.
And honestly, that tracks with where things stand. Heading into the All-Star break, the Pacers are 13-40 - second-worst in the league.
Only the Detroit Pistons are below them in the standings. They’re just three games behind the Utah Jazz, who currently sit sixth from the bottom.
According to Tankathon, Indiana has a 52.1% chance of landing a top-four pick. The Jazz?
Just 37.2%.
With numbers like that, it’s hard to argue against letting the season play out - losses and all.
Why? Because this year’s draft class isn’t just deep - it’s top-heavy in the best way possible.
The consensus is that the first four picks could each be franchise-altering talents. Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, AJ Dybantsa, and Caleb Wilson are all projected to go early, and all four bring the kind of upside that can shift a team’s direction for the next decade.
Whether it’s Peterson’s scoring versatility, Boozer’s polished all-around game, Dybantsa’s athleticism and two-way potential, or Wilson’s size and skill set, the Pacers would be thrilled to land any one of them.
That’s the kind of opportunity you don’t pass up for the sake of a few moral victories in February and March.
Sure, there’s always risk in the lottery. Even with the second-worst record, nothing is guaranteed.
But the odds are in Indiana’s favor, and the reward is too big to ignore. Holding onto that pick - and making sure it’s high enough to grab one of those top-tier prospects - could be the key to accelerating this rebuild and giving their young core a legitimate shot at something special.
If Windhorst’s reporting is accurate - and there’s no reason to think it isn’t - the Pacers are playing the long game. And in a season where the wins aren’t coming anyway, that’s not just the smart move. It’s the only one that makes sense.