Greg McElroy sees USC as the team most likely to shake up Indiana’s College Football Playoff hopes.
On his “Always College Football” podcast, the ESPN analyst said he believes the Trojans can go into Bloomington on Nov. 14 and beat the Hoosiers, a result that would leave Indiana with a second loss and put its playoff position in real danger after back-to-back overtime escapes.
McElroy’s confidence in USC came after the Trojans knocked off No. 2 Ohio State 30-18 at the Coliseum, one week after a rough 24-7 loss at Wisconsin in which they finished with minus-17 rushing yards.
The win over the Buckeyes was not about long stretches of dominance. Ohio State controlled the ball for more than 39 minutes, and even Rece Davis picked the Buckeyes before kickoff.
But USC made the plays that mattered. Jayden Maiava connected with freshman Trent Mosley on a tunnel screen that went 69 yards for a touchdown on the Trojans’ second snap, and freshman tight end Mark Bowman later turned a 70-yard catch into the setup for a King Miller touchdown that pushed the lead to 27-9.
“Ohio State really controlled the game for 39 minutes and USC controlled the two plays that decided it,” McElroy said.
That kind of explosive, efficient formula is exactly what he thinks could work again against Indiana.
“I actually think right now with how these two teams are playing, I think USC can go to Bloomington and win on November 14th,” he said.
Indiana enters at 8-1, but the offense has not looked the same since the 19-15 loss to Ohio State. Josh Hoover has been playing through a right arm injury since that game, and against Minnesota he went 8 of 19 for 119 yards with a touchdown and an interception before taking a hard hit just before halftime. Seventh-year backup Grant Wilson handled the second half and delivered the game-winning 25-yard touchdown pass to Charlie Becker on the first snap of overtime.
“Josh obviously took that hit, so I can’t remember the exact moment I made my mind up,” Curt Cignetti said. “Grant did a nice job.”
McElroy’s bigger concern is not the quarterback situation so much as the lack of sustained production from the offense.
“Indiana has not sustained a touchdown drive without a takeaway or a short field since the fourth quarter against Ohio State,” McElroy said. “Those were their last three touchdown drives. All combined to go just 72 yards.”
He added, “Indiana’s offense hasn’t done much since October 17th and if this game is any indicator, USC might only need two, maybe three plays to go on the road and steal what would be another massive victory for Riley,” he said.
Indiana dropped two spots to No. 6 in the AP Top 25, and McElroy thinks the Hoosiers have already lost their shot at a first-round bye because of the way they survived Michigan and Minnesota.
“Two straight overtime wins against unranked teams probably keeps you out of the top four,” McElroy said. “So we’re off the bye. Now it’s about protecting home field.”
That makes the USC game even more important. Indiana’s only marquee result remains the Ohio State loss, and McElroy does not believe the rest of the schedule gives the Hoosiers enough cover if they take another defeat.
“A second loss with how they’ve played and the lack of substance on some of their schedule, they might need that win against USC to guarantee themselves a playoff spot,” McElroy said.
USC’s road is simpler. The 7-2 Trojans finish with Indiana, Maryland and unbeaten UCLA, and McElroy thinks winning out would remove any real doubt.
“You win those three, I don’t think there’s going to be much of a debate that’s a playoff team,” McElroy said.
The Trojans are off this week before heading to Memorial Stadium for the Nov. 14 matchup with Indiana.
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